Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 29, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 203.5 points
  • Monday, May 29, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Boston.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 204.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 44-55 against the spread, while the Celtics are 55-45 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+7.5 -110O 204.5 -105+240
Boston Celtics -7.5 -110U 204.5 -105-300

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Monday‘s game with 66.5% confidence.

Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Celtics, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+20.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 53 of their last 85 games (+18.32 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+17.04 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 away games (+14.27 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 98 games (+26.04 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 24 games at home (+13.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+12.18 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 games at home (+9.79 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 57 of their last 100 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 44-55 (-16.5 Units / -14.84% ROI).

  • 56-45 against the Moneyline (+2.3 Units / 1.25% ROI)
  • 51-49 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -2.61% ROI)
  • 49-51 against the Under for game total points (-7.1 Units / -6.39% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 55-45 (+5.5 Units / 4.96% ROI).

  • 68-33 against the Moneyline (-42.3 Units / -12.5% ROI)
  • 53-47 against the Over for game total points (+1.3 Units / 1.17% ROI)
  • 47-53 against the Under for game total points (-11.3 Units / -10.17% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 75 games (-52.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-38.42 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 51 of their last 100 games (-33.30 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 games at home (-22.34 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.27 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 46 away games (-23.87 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 94 games (-22.02 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-21.85 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 46 away games (-20.21 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 82 games (-17.80 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721

The Heat are 93-51 (.646) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 54-26 (.675) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 48-4 (.923) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .724

The Celtics are 39-16 (.709) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Celtics are 40-14 (.741) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, May 29

  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): Gallinari is still rehabbing his torn ACL with hopes of returning in the playoffs according to the Boston Herald.
  • Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics): Brogdon is questionable for Monday’s (May 29) game against Miami.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is questionable for Monday’s (May 29) game against Boston.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro has been cleared to resume non-contact basketball activities, according to a report from the Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.0 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have made 14.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

The Celtics shot 38% from three (972/2,594) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (400 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,659 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Celtics have averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Celtics have blocked 431 shots this season — 6th most among NBA teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.