- The Knicks are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 209.5 points
- Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
- Watch the game on TNT
The Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in New York.
The Knicks are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Knicks Over/Under is 209.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 40-51 against the spread, while the Knicks are 49-39 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Miami Heat | +3.5 -110 | O 209.5 -110 | +135 |
New York Knicks | -3.5 -110 | U 209.5 -110 | -165 |
Knicks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Wednesday‘s game with 57.9% confidence.
Knicks vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Knicks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 59 of their last 95 games (+18.67 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+15.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 away games (+15.72 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 23 of their last 33 away games (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Knicks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The New York Knicks have covered the 1H Spread in 55 of their last 90 games (+18.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+12.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+12.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have covered the Spread in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 40-51 (-16.1 Units / -15.73% ROI).
- 52-41 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -1.6% ROI)
- 47-45 against the Over for game total points (-2.5 Units / -2.44% ROI)
- 45-47 against the Under for game total points (-6.7 Units / -6.55% ROI)
New York Knicks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 49-39 (+6.15 Units / 6.14% ROI).
- 52-39 against the Moneyline (+5.05 Units / 3.3% ROI)
- 45-44 against the Over for game total points (-3.4 Units / -3.4% ROI)
- 44-45 against the Under for game total points (-5.5 Units / -5.49% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Knicks:
- The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 83 games (-23.95 Units / -25% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 17 of their last 43 games at home (-20.48 Units / -32% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 91 games (-17.89 Units / -17% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 58 games (-14.25 Units / -23% ROI)
- The New York Knicks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 77 games (-12.49 Units / -14% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 100 games (-23.75 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 98 games (-23.26 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 42 away games (-22.32 Units / -45% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 42 away games (-19.96 Units / -43% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-19.45 Units / -18% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the New York Knicks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- New York Knicks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- New York Knicks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks
The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565
The Heat are 54-8 (.871) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .768
The Heat are 30-7 (.811) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .771
The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721
New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Knicks are 24-33 (.421) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .452
The Knicks are 1-15 (.062) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .242
The Knicks are 46-33 (.582) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491
The Knicks are 8-19 (.296) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366
Injury Report: Knicks vs. Heat – Wednesday‘s Game, May 10
- Immanuel Quickley (Knicks): Quickley is doubtful for Wednesday’s (May 10) game against Miami.
- Isaiah Roby (Knicks): Roby is dealing with an ankle injury and is ineligible to play in the postseason after signing with New York after Mar. 1.
- Jericho Sims (Knicks): Sims underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
- Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Wednesday’s (May 10) game against New York.
- Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is questionable for Wednesday’s (May 10) game against New York.
- Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
- Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is questionable for Wednesday’s (May 10) game against New York.
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4
The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1
The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4
The Heat have averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (419 points/82 games) in the second half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5
New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (2,441 assists/ 1,549 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (1,748 assists/ 1,065 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Knicks have averaged 22.4 assists per game (2,646 assists/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2
The Knicks have 25.5 free throw attempts per game this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (394 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Knicks have averaged 6.4 steals per game (527 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3
The Knicks have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (8,740 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9
The Knicks have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,991 rebounds/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Knicks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (340 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
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