Heat vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jun. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 12, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 209.5 points
  • Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Miami Heat visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Nuggets Over/Under is 210.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 46-58 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 56-44 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+8.5 -105O 210.5 -105+290
Denver Nuggets -8.5 -115U 210.5 -105-375

Nuggets vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 71.0% confidence.

Nuggets vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+22.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 57 of their last 90 games (+21.22 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+19.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 47 away games (+15.34 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 away games (+13.57 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 66 of their last 97 games (+31.01 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 45 games at home (+25.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 44 of their last 72 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+10.69 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 46-58 (-17.8 Units / -15.26% ROI).

  • 58-48 against the Moneyline (+4.35 Units / 2.3% ROI)
  • 52-53 against the Over for game total points (-6.3 Units / -5.4% ROI)
  • 53-52 against the Under for game total points (-4.2 Units / -3.6% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 56-44 (+7.6 Units / 6.84% ROI).

  • 68-33 against the Moneyline (+5.9 Units / 2.21% ROI)
  • 47-53 against the Over for game total points (-11.3 Units / -10.17% ROI)
  • 53-47 against the Under for game total points (+1.3 Units / 1.17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 97 games (-43.17 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 51 games (-18.55 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 99 games (-18.25 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 49 games at home (-16.71 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 51 games (-15.45 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 49 away games (-26.87 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 99 games (-21.22 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 49 away games (-20.36 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1H Spread in 36 of their last 87 games (-20.20 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 98 games (-16.50 Units / -15% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Heat are 51-33 (.607) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Heat are 27-18 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 34-17 (.667) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Heat are 36-5 (.878) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .773

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Nuggets are 56-23 (.709) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Nuggets are 83-39 (.680) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Nuggets are 35-16 (.686) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, Jun. 12

  • Denver Nuggets – No Injuries Reported
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is out for Monday’s (Jun. 12) game against Denver.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat are shooting 83% from the free throw line (1,567/1,885) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,378/10,546) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (1,831/3,563) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (394 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (249 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (344 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (500 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (996 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.