Indian Wells Best Bets & Predictions: First Round at BNP Paribas

The “fifth slam” is back. 

Indian Wells is one of the biggest tennis tournaments in the world and the second-most popular draw on American soil behind the U.S. Open. Because it’s in California and played during the pre-March Madness lull, it’s often a popular target for tennis betting.

The Indian Wells prize money is quite lucrative, so tennis fans will be treated to a top-tier players list for both the men’s and women’s draws. 

However, many of those top players have first-round byes. If you’re betting the first round, be prepared to wade through lots of qualifiers, wildcards, and second-rate players. Here are a few bets I like for the opening days of the tournament. 

Mattia Belluci vs. Gabriel Diallo Prediction

Gabriel Diallo is a top 40 player, but he’s 18-19 on hardcourt since the beginning of 2025 and has won three total matches since the Paris Masters in October. He’s 0-2 since arriving in the U.S. for the Dallas Open last month.

Mattia Bellucci’s record isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he made it to the quarterfinals in Acapulco last week and should be taken seriously in this first-round match. I think Diallo is in bad enough form right now that he’s in danger of another one-and-done outing. 

Prediction: Mattia Bellucci -102 

James Duckworth vs. Dalibor Svrcina Prediction

This number jumped out at me. Svrcina is a qualifier who’s a pretty comfortable favorite over tour veteran James Duckworth, who turned 34 at the end of January.

I dove into the numbers to figure out what’s going on here, and, in short, Duckworth is in a lousy run of form right now. The Aussie got bounced in the Flushing qualifier last August but advanced anyway as a lucky loser. Tristan Boyer beat him in straight sets in the first round. He left New York for the Asian Swing, where he proceeded to lose four more matches in a row across tour qualifying matches and challenger sets. 

Duckworth mostly stuck to Challengers after that, trying to regain a little form. Except for an out-of-nowhere run to the semifinals at the Almaty Open, there just isn’t a lot of main draw tour tennis worth pointing at here.

Duckworth enters Indian Wells on a four-match losing streak with one main-draw win this calendar year. Svrcina successfully played his way through the Indian Wells qualifier and handled Duckworth 6-4, 6-1 at Acapulco last month. I like a repeat performance here. 

Prediction: Dalibor Svrcina Wins in Straight Sets (-110)

Dino Prizmic vs. Tristan Schoolkate Prediction

I think Dino Prizmic is a star in the making. The draw says both of these players are qualifiers, but Prizmic is 51-21 since the start of 2025. He is clearly the best player in this match, and the market is reflecting that with its moneyline price.

Where the market has failed to adjust is in the derivatives. Prizmic is barely laying any juice to win in straight sets, and that looks to me like an error. Prizmic isn’t a guy who plays with his food – especially on a hard surface like this. His match record shows that.

Prediction: Dino Prizmic Wins in Straight Sets (-125)

Joao Fonseca vs. Raphael Collignon Prediction

Fonseca finished the 2025 tour with a career-best No. 24 ranking, thanks largely to a 40-17 match record last year. He played mostly tour events after the winter hardcourt season and racked up a lot of points. He even went 29-9 on hardcourt surfaces, which is unusually good for a Brazilian player. 

That makes Fonseca’s light price against Belgium’s Raphael Collignon an interesting number to spot in BetMGM’s online sportsbook. Collignon won the Pau Challenger in France and played out of the qualifiers to the quarters in Brisbane. He also took a set off Lorenzo Musetti in Melbourne. 

Curiously, Fonseca is coming to Indian Wells from the Golden Swing and hasn’t played hardcourt tennis since the Australian Open. (He lost in the first round to Eliot Spizzirri.) He hasn’t won a hardcourt match since October and hasn’t won on outdoor hardcourt since Flushing.

This profile for Fonseca has all the makings of a hangover period after a career year. I like Collignon to win the match, and I’d look to supplement with first-set positions to capitalize on Collignon’s early comfort with surface speed. 

Prediction: Raphael Collignon +105; Raphael Collignon First Set -102

Anastasia Potapova vs. Marina Stakusic Prediction

I usually like a lot of action in the women’s draw, but I didn’t like a lot of the numbers I saw for this particular first round. 

This match was a notable exception. Stakusic is a Canadian qualifier who has been playing quite well in recent months. She hasn’t quite cracked the WTA Top 100, but she will soon at this rate. She beat Dayana Yastremska in Merida last month, took a set off Priscilla Hon at the Australian Open, and played to the final set of the championship match at the Austin 125 in November. And that’s just the last few months!

Here, the market has made her a nominal favorite over 24-year-old tour veteran Anastasia Potapova. The Austrian had a valiant 6-7, 6-7 loss to Aryna Sabalenka in Melbourne. Other than that, she’s mostly been unimpressive in her start to this year’s action. She’s on a three-match losing streak coming into Indian Wells, including a loss to Ella Seidel in the Dubai qualifiers last month.

Stakusic is arguably the better player right now and quite comfortable in North America, but she’s available near -110 because she’s a qualifier with a low ranking. Since none of that actually matters on the court, I see this as a great buy point.

Prediction: Marina Stakusic -118

2026 Indian Wells Best Bets (First Round)

• Mattia Bellucci -102
• Dalibor Svrcina Wins 2-0 (-110)
• Dino Prizmic Wins 2-0 (-125)
• Raphael Collignon +105
• Marina Stakusic -118