Indian Wells Best Bets & Predictions: Round of 16 at BNP Paribas

As Indian Wells continues to unfold this week, there are still dozens of excellent tennis betting opportunities at California’s BNP Paribas – the “fifth Slam” of the professional tennis tours. 

While the draws are quickly narrowing down to a handful of games, I still like quite a few numbers during this midweek stretch ahead of the quarterfinals. 

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Arthur Fils Prediction

At -150, I think this moneyline is a little too light for Auger-Aliassime. Felix just played Arthur Fils at Montpellier last month and won 6-4, 6-2. He won the tournament, played to the championship round at Rotterdam, and lost to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals at Dubai. He’s 14-4 since Jan. 1.

If you’re really hunting for a criticism right now, you could point out that Auger-Aliassime has lost his first set on a tiebreaker in each of his first two matches at Indian Wells. He went on to win both matches 2-1, and if anything, his tiebreaker luck is probably regression-bound in the positive direction.

Fils is a good tour player who is nearing a return to the top 30, but I don’t see him as the better player right now. In my opinion, the best approach to capitalize on the value in this line is to lay a couple of games with Auger-Aliassime. If he’s playing the first set tight for strategic exploration, he can win or lose a first-set tiebreaker and still cover -2.5 pretty reasonably. 

Prediction: Felix Auger-Aliassime -2.5 Games (+105)

Learner Tien vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

I just love the way Tien is playing right now. I had Tien as a long shot to win his quarter at the Australian Open, which provided excellent hedging value, and he’s continued to play well since Melbourne. He took a set off Tommy Paul in the Delray Beach semifinal and eliminated Ben Shelton from Indian Wells on Sunday.

Tien is a short favorite here even though Fokina is the higher-ranked and higher-seeded player. That’s the market correctly weighing in on Tien’s excellent form despite what the near-useless ATP rankings say. 

Prediction: Learner Tien -135

Elena Rybakina vs. Sonay Kartal Prediction

This is a tricky spot for Rybakina bettors. The reigning Australian Open champ has seen a big adjustment down in price point after Melbourne, and so she’s vulnerable to smart fades from bettors who really know all the odds levers available to them.

A little data: In the six matches Rybakina has played and completed since the Aussie final, she’s dropped a set three times and won by five net games or more only twice.

That latter bit is relevant in Wednesday’s match because Sonay Kartal is catching +4.5 games at BetMGM with a nice +105 price. Neither of Rybakina’s first two matches at Indian Wells would have covered -4.5. 

At +375, I wouldn’t blame anyone for firing a dart with Kartal to win outright. I personally prefer the more conservative play in the games spread market. 

Prediction: Sonay Kartal +4.5 (+105)

2026 Indian Wells Best Bets: Round of 16

• Felix Auger-Aliassime -2.5 Games (+105)
• Learner Tien -135 
• Sonay Kartal +4.5 (+105)