Italian Open Championship Betting Preview: Picks for ATP, WTA

The Italian Open singles championships are set to be decided, with the WTA finale scheduled for its traditional Saturday slot. For American viewers, this European championship will be available in the morning.

The ATP singles championship will follow on Sunday.

BetMGM has already posted tennis odds for the women’s final. The men’s final will be priced as soon as Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev can finish their semifinal third set, which was stopped late on Friday because of rain. 

Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina Prediction

It’s often hard to tell if Coco Gauff is favored because she’s the better player in a given matchup, or if it’s simply market factors driving up the buy point for a big name in the American audience of bettors.

In this specific match, it feels a bit like the latter. Gauff may have won the French Open last spring, but her 2026 campaign has been unimpressive. She was 3-2 on clay prior to arriving in Rome; her top calendar achievement in 2026 was reaching the finals in Miami at the end of March.

Svitolina doesn’t have a 2026 tour title yet either, but she has looked more impressive during this two-week stretch in Rome. Svitolina punched her ticket to the championship round after back-to-back wins against Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek – two top wins that will make anyone stand up and take notice. 

In head-to-head terms, Svitolina and Gauff have played five times, but their matches have always come on hardcourt. Because of that, some handicappers may want to just flush that data point entirely.

Before you do, consider that Svitolina holds a 3-2 head-to-head advantage, with two wins coming this calendar year – in the Dubai semifinals and Australian Open quarterfinals.

I think there’s a case to be made that Gauff’s athleticism and volley range could give her a pathway to even their head-to-head series at three matches apiece. But given what Svitolina has done this week, and the fact that she’s already scored two wins against Gauff this year, it’s hard to ignore the +130 buy point. I’ll be looking for alternate spreads to lay games with Svitolina for richer payouts, too. 

Prediction: Elina Svitolina +130

Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud Prediction

Now that Sunday’s finale is finally set after a bad overnight weather delay, bettors can officially see odds on Sinner vs. Ruud. And they are… pretty much what you imagined they would be.

Sinner is a big -650 favorite with a lot on the line, since Sinner can become just the second men’s player ever to complete the Golden Masters with a title on his home court in Rome. 

Ruud’s advantages on the court in a match against Sinner are virtually none. Off the court, he likely feels less pressure as a huge underdog, and he should be better-rested and well-prepared after finishing his match earlier on Friday.

Many bettors will simply lay out with a market like this, and that’s a fine way to approach the men’s final. But Sinner has been so dominant in four career matches against Ruud that it’s probably fair to consider spread betting here. Sinner is -225 to win the match in straight sets and -105 to cover a -5.5 games spread.

The head-to-head history is potentially informative here. Sinner played Ruud in last year’s Rome quarterfinal, nearly skunking him at 6-0, 6-1. At the ATP Finals in 2024, he beat Ruud on hardcourt 6-1, 6-2. In total, Sinner has won eight sets against Ruud in his career, and Ruud has won zero.

This is a match where the upper distribution of results is absolutely in play, so I’m not afraid of aggressive plays. The 2-0 result at -225 is fine, but I personally prefer something like Sinner -6.5 games for +210. 

Prediction: Jannik Sinner Wins 2-0 (-225); Jannik Sinner -6.5 Games (+210)

Italian Open Championship Match Best Bets

• Elina Svitolina +130
• Jannik Sinner Wins 2-0 (-225)