Coming off a shocking upset over the United States baseball team, Italy will try to deliver once more in the final pool play matchup against Mexico. First pitch is 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Daikin Park in Houston on FS1.
Italy is now 3-0 in pool play following last night’s 8-6 victory over the USA. With a win over Mexico, Italy will advance to the quarterfinals for a third time. They will also qualify if they hold Mexico to four runs or fewer in a loss.
Mexico (2-1), meanwhile, reaches the quarterfinals by scoring five or more runs in a win. Mexico is a -275 favorite tonight, with the total set at 7.5.
Get my Italy vs. Mexico WBC prediction for tonight’s matchup:
Italy vs. Mexico WBC Prediction for March 11
- Italy moneyline (+220)
Based on the initial baseball odds, I’m backing Italy’s moneyline value in my Italy vs. Mexico WBC prediction for Wednesday. I also lean toward the over on the full-game total.
As I explained in yesterday’s USA vs. Italy preview, I disagreed with the market’s perception of Italy and Mexico. I believe these two teams are closer than the betting odds suggest, which is why I think Italy has a better-than-31.25% chance of winning tonight.
Don’t let Mark DeRosa’s mismanagement of the USA’s lineup last night take away from Italy’s performance. They were the better team and deserved to win, especially after racing out to an 8-0 lead.
I love this Italy team so much. Kyle Teel and Jac Caglianone both launched home runs, flashing the left-handed power this lineup has in this event. Vinnie Pasquantino, Italy’s best player, didn’t even get a hit last night.
Michael Lorenzen pitched 4 2/3 innings of shutout baseball as Italy’s starter last night. There were six different relievers used behind him, which makes me think the over on the full-game total might be worth consideration as well.
Team USA should be rooting for Italy tonight in hopes of reaching the next round. And I will be too after making this Italy vs. Mexico prediction.
Italy vs. Mexico WBC Odds: Wednesday, March 11
- Italy moneyline: +220
- Mexico moneyline: -275
- Total: 7.5
Who Will Start for Italy vs. Mexico in the World Baseball Classic?
Right-hander Aaron Nola will start for Italy in their WBC matchup against Mexico on Wednesday. Nola has spent the last 11 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, posting a career 3.83 ERA.
Who Will Start for Mexico vs. Italy in the World Baseball Classic?
Mexico has yet to reveal its starting pitcher for tonight’s WBC matchup against Italy.
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