Jaguars vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL Preseason

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(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2023, 1:13 PM
  • The Jaguars are -4 point favorites vs the Lions
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on NFL Network

The Jacksonville Jaguars visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on Aug. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Detroit.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this preseason Week 2 matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Lions Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jaguars-4 -11039.5 -110-185
Lions +4 -11039.5 -110+150

Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this preseason game with 65.4% confidence.

Jaguars vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jaguars and Lions, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Rush Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Kalif Raymond has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored last in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+10.40 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.15 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 54% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Jaguars went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 52.63% ROI
  • Jaguars are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Jaguars are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Lions went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Lions are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
  • Lions are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Lions are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Jaguars are winless (0-4) after a loss as favorites since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .630.

The Jaguars are 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .763.

The Jaguars are 1-7 (.125) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .453.

The Jaguars were 4-2 (.667) vs bottom 10 pass defenses in the 2022 season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .494.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Lions were winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .301.

The Lions are 1-9 (.100) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .338.

The Lions are 4-12-1 (.235) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .458.

The Lions are 1-6 (.143) when playing in warm weather since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

Lions TEs gained 784 yards on 66 receptions (11.9 YPR) last season — fifth-best in NFL. The Jaguars allowed 13.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — third-worst in NFL.

The Lions ran successful plays on just 15.8% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have pressured opposing QBs on 31.6% of passing plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 43.5% in the fourth quarter last season — fifth-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 54.2% in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL.

The Jaguars scored on 40.4% of their drives in the second half last season — fifth-best in NFL. The Lions defense allowed scores on 39.8% of opponent drives in the second half last season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars had a third down conversion rate of 45.0% in the second half last season — third-best in NFL. The Lions defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 43.0% in the second half last season — third-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 3rd and short last season — third-best in NFL. The Lions allowed 5.1 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars went three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter in the 2022 season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Jaguars converted first downs on 27 of 107 plays (25%) on plays when their QB was pressured in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Jaguars were flagged 14 times for 10+ yards on offense in the 2022 season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Jaguars allowed a QB hit on 11% of pass attempts in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions committed 15 turnovers in the 2022 season — fewest in NFL.

The Lions went three and out on 4% of their drives in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Lions ran 20% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Lions ran 62% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 47% in the 2nd half in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Jaguars defense has missed 214 tackles since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense allowed 62 broken tackles in the 2022 season — most in NFL.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,935 yards / 830 touches) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.

Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 12% of the time (129 Pass Attempts/1,103 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Lions defense has allowed 12.4 yards per completion (8,807 yards/712 completions) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.0.

The Lions defense allowed 407.9 yards from scrimmage per game in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 355.0.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.