The Miami Dolphins have won five in a row and are one game away from reaching a .500 record. As they prepare to host the New York Jets in Week 15, NFL betting lines have the Dolphins as ten-point favorites.
The Jets have lost five of their last six games. Meanwhile, Miami returns to action in Week 15 after a bye week. So let’s see where the best bets are for the Jets at Dolphins.
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
During their five-game winning streak, the Dolphins have averaged 23.2 points per game. Miami’s season average is 19.5 points per game.
Yet when Miami rushes for over 100 yards in a game, the scoring average rises to 28.2 points. Unfortunately, the Dolphins have only reached that rushing total four times this year.
One of those 100-yard games was against the Jets in Week 11, but much has changed since then. For example, this week’s reports revealed that Miami has five running backs either in the COVID protocol or on injured reserve. However, Malcolm Brown could get activated this week from IR.
The New York Jets defense is giving up 138.8 rushing yards per game, but the Dolphins might have a hard time taking advantage of this because of their backfield’s health.
Scoring has been a massive issue for New York, who only averages only 17.4 points per game. However, the Jets hope running back Michael Carter and tight end Tyler Kroft can be back this week. Unfortunately, Zach Wilson will still be without his top receiver, Elijah Moore.
The Dolphins’ 13th-ranked defense only gives up an average of 22.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Jets haven’t scored more than 21 points since Week 9, so this looks like a good spot to bet the under.
Miami Team Total Under 23.5 (+135)
With three running backs possibly out for Week 15, the Dolphins will need a considerable effort from Tua Tagovailoa. In Week 11 against the Jets, Tua went 27-33 for 273 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The Dolphins also gained 115 yards on the ground.
The rushing attack allowed Miami to keep the ball for 33:35 minutes in that game. The Jets may have the 27th ranked pass defense, but they can key on Tagovailoa more if Miami can’t run the ball.
Miami ranks 16th in passing yards per game, and they’re 28th in average yards per pass attempt. However, I expect Miami to pass the ball frequently in this game because of their running back situation. By using short passes, they can keep the clock running while still moving the chains.
I believe that the Dolphins have too many players missing this week to score consistently, so I’m going with the Dolphins putting less than 24 points on the board.
New York Jets +8.5 (-110)
On offense, the New York Jets are still a work in progress with Zach Wilson. He completes 56.1% of his passes and has six touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
New York has scored fewer than 20 points in eight games this year. The absence of Elijah Moore will leave a big hole in the Jets’ passing offense.
Despite all of that, I still like the Jets to keep it close because the Miami backfield has accounted for 20 of the team’s 42 touchdowns. With almost half their scoring missing for this game, I believe that it will be hard for the Dolphins to gain much of a lead.
I still think Miami is the better team, but I’m taking the New York Jets to cover the 8.5 points in Week 15.
Week 15: Jets at Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins will try to get to 7-7 with a win in Week 15. They are still in playoff contention, but they’ll need to continue to win games if they want to play in the postseason.
What’s your prediction for the Jets at Dolphins on Sunday? Sign up for an account with BetMGM, the best online sportsbook, and place your bets on this game and all of Week 15’s action.
