Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Arkansas State Red Wolves are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the Kennesaw State Owls
• Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Kennesaw State (1-2) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State (1-2) on Sep. 26 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-108).

The Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

Bet now on Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kennesaw State Owls & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Arkansas State will win this game with 56.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Kennesaw State Owls and the Arkansas State Red Wolves, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kennesaw State Best Bets Today

• Kennesaw State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• Kennesaw State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kennesaw State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kennesaw State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kennesaw State has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)

Arkansas State Best Bets Today

• Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Kennesaw State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kennesaw State Owls is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Kennesaw State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -8.88% ROI
• Kennesaw State is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
• Kennesaw State is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State Red Wolves is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -1.92% ROI
• Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Kennesaw State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Kennesaw State was winless (0-8) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Kennesaw State was winless (0-1) when rushing more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .622

Kennesaw State was 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 7th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Kennesaw State is 10-3 (.769) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .545

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Kennesaw State

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Arkansas State was 6-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .604

Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

Matchup Notes for Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State’s RBs has rushed for 1,556 yards on 342 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS RBs. Kennesaw State’s defense have allowed 5.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs has rushed for 1,556 yards on 342 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS RBs. Kennesaw State’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs rushed for 1,179 yards on 267 carries (just 4.4 YPC) last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS RBs. Kennesaw State’s defense allowed 5.4 YPC to RBs last season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.4% of 421 attempts last season — T-23rd-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State’s WRs had 191.5 receiving yards per game last season — 33rd-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 receiving yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State’s WRs had 191.5 receiving yards per game last season — 33rd-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 176.8 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kennesaw State Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 26.0 receptions (156 Rec/6 TDs) last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Kennesaw State RBs averaged 8.1 Yards per Carry (114 yards/14 carries) in the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Kennesaw State Skill Players averaged just 5.5 yards per reception (44 yards/8 catches) in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Kennesaw State Skill Players averaged just 3.0 yards per reception (3 yards/1 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Kennesaw State WRs averaged a touchdown every 49.5 receptions (99 Rec/2 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State have 96 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Offenses

Arkansas State RBs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State Skill Players have 67 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State TEs averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (302 yards/43 catches) last season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Arkansas State have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (335/13) this season– T-4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.2

Kennesaw State Defensive Stats & Trends

Kennesaw State tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 7 rushing attempts (43% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Kennesaw State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Kennesaw State allowed a Completion Pct of 79% (30 completions/38 attempts) in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Kennesaw State allowed a Completion Pct of 79% (30 completions/38 attempts) in the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Kennesaw State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (3 completions/3 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 18%

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 94 of 483 carries (20%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 94 of 483 carries (20%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%

Arkansas State allowed 25 rushing TDs on just 65 carries (2.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.4

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