Knicks vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 12, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat are -5.5 favorites vs. the Knicks
  • Total (Over/Under): 208.5 points
  • Friday, May 12, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The New York Knicks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Knicks vs Heat Over/Under is 205.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Knicks are 50-39 against the spread, while the Heat are 40-52 against the spread.


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Knicks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New York Knicks+6.5 -110O 205.5 -105+200
Miami Heat -6.5 -110U 205.5 -105-250

Heat vs Knicks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 61.9% confidence.

Heat vs Knicks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Knicks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Knicks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The New York Knicks have covered the 1H Spread in 56 of their last 91 games (+19.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 away games (+15.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 91 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the Spread in 41 of their last 69 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 60 of their last 96 games (+19.67 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+15.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+14.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games (+10.63 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 50-39 (+7.15 Units / 7.07% ROI).

  • 53-39 against the Moneyline (+6.05 Units / 3.91% ROI)
  • 46-44 against the Over for game total points (-2.4 Units / -2.37% ROI)
  • 44-46 against the Under for game total points (-6.6 Units / -6.52% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 40-52 (-17.2 Units / -16.63% ROI).

  • 52-42 against the Moneyline (-3.8 Units / -2.16% ROI)
  • 48-45 against the Over for game total points (-1.5 Units / -1.45% ROI)
  • 45-48 against the Under for game total points (-7.8 Units / -7.54% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 99 games (-22.26 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-21.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 42 of their last 100 games (-19.60 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 39 of their last 95 games (-18.10 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 97 games (-17.60 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 84 games (-25.15 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 92 games (-16.89 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 games (-14.13 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 59 games (-13.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 78 games (-11.49 Units / -13% ROI)

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New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks are 19-39 (.328) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Knicks are 24-33 (.421) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .452

The Knicks are 28-81 (.257) when allowing 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .326

The Knicks are 36-29 (.554) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .508

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721

The Heat are 93-51 (.646) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 54-26 (.675) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

Injury Report: Heat vs. KnicksFriday‘s Game, May 12

  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is probable for Friday’s (May.12) game against New York.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Friday’s (May.12) game against New York.
  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is probable for Friday’s (May.12) game against New York.
  • Immanuel Quickley (Knicks): Quickley is doubtful for Friday’s (May 12) game against Miami.
  • Isaiah Roby (Knicks): Roby is dealing with an ankle injury and is ineligible to play in the postseason after signing with New York after Mar. 1.
  • Jericho Sims (Knicks): Sims underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Evan Fournier (Knicks): Fournier did not play in Wednesday’s (May 10) game against Miami.

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (1,748 assists/ 1,065 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Knicks have averaged 10.3 assists per game (2,441 assists/236 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Knicks have averaged 10.8 fast break points per game (2,556 points/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

The Knicks have averaged 22.1 assists per game (5,214 assists/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (8,740 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9

The Knicks have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,991 rebounds/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Knicks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (779 steals/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Knicks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (340 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (400 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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