Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 16, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -6.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Los Angeles Lakers visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Lakers vs Nuggets Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Lakers are 48-45 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 51-41 against the spread.


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Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Los Angeles Lakers+6.5 -110O 222.5 -110+195
Denver Nuggets -6.5 -110U 222.5 -110-250

Nuggets vs Lakers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 61.9% confidence.

Nuggets vs Lakers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Lakers and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+24.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.64 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 4Q Spread in 26 of their last 36 away games (+14.48 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 away games (+13.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 15 games (+12.95 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 89 games (+33.46 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 41 games at home (+25.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+10.94 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 48-45 (-1.55 Units / -1.48% ROI).

  • 52-43 against the Moneyline (+15.75 Units / 9.98% ROI)
  • 49-45 against the Over for game total points (-0.5 Units / -0.48% ROI)
  • 45-49 against the Under for game total points (-8.9 Units / -8.52% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 51-41 (+5.9 Units / 5.77% ROI).

  • 61-32 against the Moneyline (+1.1 Units / 0.44% ROI)
  • 44-48 against the Over for game total points (-8.8 Units / -8.6% ROI)
  • 48-44 against the Under for game total points (-0.4 Units / -0.39% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 89 games (-44.82 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 47 games at home (-16.69 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 92 games (-16.57 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 43 games (-15.00 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 38 of their last 86 games (-13.85 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 83 games (-18.45 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 2Q Spread in 18 of their last 51 games (-18.36 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 51 games (-18.11 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 56 games (-18.03 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 40 away games (-17.70 Units / -40% ROI)

Jump to:

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Lakers are 8-30 (.211) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .275

The Lakers are 54-51 (.514) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Lakers are 9-24 (.273) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

The Lakers are 49-43 (.533) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .458

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Nuggets are 83-25 (.769) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .569

The Nuggets are 47-19 (.712) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets are 42-13 (.764) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. LakersTuesday‘s Game, May 16

  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is questionable for Tuesday’s (May 16) game against the Lakers.
  • Anthony Davis (Lakers): Davis is probable for Tuesday’s (May 16) game against Denver
  • Mo Bamba (Lakers): Bamba is OUT for Tuesday’s (May 16) game against Denver.
  • LeBron James (Lakers): James is probable for Tuesday’s (May 16) game against Denver.

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (304 assists/ 149 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers have 26.6 free throw attempts per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Lakers have averaged 54.5 points in the paint per game (4,470 points/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Lakers are shooting 47% (9,856/20,773) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (1,831/3,563) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 4.9 blocks per game (803 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Lakers have averaged 37.4 defensive rebounds per game (6,135 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.7

The Lakers have blocked 1,189 shots since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th most among NBA teams

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (996 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (496 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 7.5 steals per game (887 steals/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.