AIG Women’s Open Betting Options: Favorites Plus Longshots

This week’s AIG Women’s Open at Royal Lytham and St. Annes is the fifth and final major championship of the LPGA season – and with winners such as Hinako Shibuno, Sophia Popov and Ashleigh Buhai over the past decade, it’s easily the least chalky of the quintet.

That doesn’t mean Nelly Korda (+750) can’t play Nelly Korda-type golf and run away with another major, but her runner-up finish of two years ago remains one of only two top-10s in nine career starts at this one. If I’m betting a single-digit favorite, I need more clues than she’s offered here, so I’m willing to take the chance on zero exposure.

Nelly shouldn’t take that personally, as I like the player directly behind her on the board, Miyu Yamashita (+1000), even less at her current price. That doesn’t mean I don’t understand it: As the defending champion, with four top-fives in her last six starts, Yamashita seemingly has that perfect intersection of history and form which has allowed her to leapfrog others in this market. Even so, that’s way too short of a price for my liking when we consider she owns just three career LPGA wins and four top-10s in 18 major starts.

Haeran Ryu (+1100) has won the last two majors, but hasn’t posted a top-20 at this one in three career starts. Jeeno Thitikul (+1400) has just one top-10 in eight starts. Again: Can they win? Sure. Am I willing to pay these prices to find out? Absolutely not.

Instead, I’ll start dipping a toe into the outright pool with Lottie Woad (+2200). The home country favorite – or one of them; I’ll get to the other shortly – has played this event twice and owns two top-10 results. She’s currently ranked fifth in the world and, yes, I might have written similar words before a few other majors this year, but if she’s going to assert her place amongst the world’s best, then she’s going to have to win a big one soon. This feels like her best chance so far.

Maybe I’m just trying to make up for the Tommy Fleetwood tale that never happened a few weeks ago, but I’ll back up the Woad selection with another narrative play in Charley Hull (+2500). In fact, I’m surprised we’re getting such a good number here and wouldn’t be surprised if it shortens to something closer to 20/1 by Thursday morning, as the Englishwoman has a pair of runner-up finishes at this event over the past three years and it’s no secret that she brings her best stuff to the majors, with four results of 16th or better in the last five of ‘em.

This might not be a win of Fleetwood-like proportions, but it would be the best story on the slate and I think it’s got a great chance of happening. (And just in case you think I’m overplaying the narrative, remember that Georgia Hall won at Lytham the last time it was held here eight years ago.)

With two players at 25/1 or shorter on the card, I won’t load up with any others in this range, but I will mention A Lim Kim (+2800), who tends to play well on links setups, and Hye Jin Choi (+4500), who doesn’t, but owns some value at this price.

My usual pre-major blind support of Patty Tavatanakit (+5000) is tempered a bit due to her being half the price she’s been before some other majors, but I’m still a big fan of her game.

The player I really like at that number is Hannah Green (+5000), who surprisingly doesn’t have a better record at this event – nothing better than T-16 and three straight MCs in eight career starts – but is the ninth-ranked player in the world and is tied for just the 19th-shortest odds. That smells like value.

Something similar could be said for In Gee Chun (+8000), a three-time major champion and runner-up at this event four years ago, who contended at the U.S. Women’s Open this year.

Celine Boutier (+8000) is more of a top-20/top-40 type of play than an outright, but she owns a very high floor, with top-25 results in each of the last four years. Rio Takeda (+8000) probably owns a higher ceiling at the same outright price.

In previous majors, I’ve listed the likes of Brooke Henderson and Lauren Coughlin as bet-‘em-and-forget-‘em plays based simply on the fact that they’ve been priced twice as long as they perhaps should’ve been. This week, I feel the same way about Minjee Lee (+10000). No, it hasn’t been a great season. And yes, we should be concerned about her recent WD from the Scottish. But I’d never be able to forgive myself if a player with seven top-15 results in the last 11 years at this tourney was priced in triple-digits and I faded her, only to watch her win.

I don’t know if Cassie Porter (+12500) is ready to win a major, but she’s shown some signs of breaking through this season and has a lot of potential.

Erika Hara (+12500) might be more ready, with a 14th-place finish at the Evian Championship and a T-8 at the Scottish. This feels like a very good price at which to take a swing.

Speaking of taking some swings, let’s get into some even bigger numbers – and remember, at a major which has seen some longshots triumph, these aren’t just lottery tickets.

Linn Grant (+15000) has been less than stellar this season, but she does own top-20 finishes in each of the last four editions of the Women’s Open.

Megan Khang (+20000) was T-6 last year and her game traditionally travels to the other side of the pond.

Carlota Ciganda (+25000) is now 36 and her best days are behind her, but it wouldn’t be a total shock to see her pull off that elusive major victory.

Dewi Weber (+30000), with absolutely no major championship form to speak of previously, finished T-3 at last month’s KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, which could spark something this week.

And lastly, Mimi Rhodes (+30000) hasn’t looked special in her rookie season on the LPGA, but she was one of the best players on the LET over the past few years and could make some noise on home soil once again.