Amundi Evian Championship Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

It might seem like the LPGA is conducting a major championship every week, but that idea is clearly ridiculous.

It’s only every other week.

This week’s Amundi Evian Championship marks the third women’s major since the first week of June – and the next (and final) one is just three weeks away at the AIG Women’s Open.

Holding so many majors so closely together isn’t just good news for the likes of Nelly Korda and Haeran Ryu and Ina Yoon who have largely been in form for them. It’s also good news for those of us trying to prognosticate these events, as the narrow windows suggest some fairly strong correlations from one to the next.

If there’s an opening for a longshot to win one of women’s golf’s five majors, it probably comes at Evian Resort Golf Club, where the past three years have yielded champions from the top tier (Ayaka Furue was +2200 in 2024), mid-tier (Celine Boutier was +5500 in 2023) and bottom tier (Grace Kim was +11000 last year).

On a shorter course than most of the others with a (usually) lower score, the Evian feels like a good place to forego the favorites.

That feels like a good place to start, as Nelly Korda (+400) is once again the obvious favorite here, but if you’re ever going to fade her at one of the big ones, this is the place. In eight career starts here, she owns just a pair of top-10s and nothing better than T-8, as she finished a disappointing T-43 last year. Granted, with two wins and a T-8 in three previous majors this season, she could easily reverse her record at this one, but I’d rather take my chances on some bigger numbers.

For whatever reason, this feels more like a Jeeno Thitikul (+1200) course than a Korda one, as the former owns four top-10s in her last five starts here, including a runner-up to Kim last year. This price is similarly a bit too short, but if she comes out of the gate just a little slow and it drifts to the 20/1 range, I could be enticed in the live market.

Last year, Lottie Woad (+2500) finished T-3 here as an amateur and she’s since added two more top-10s to her major championship profile. It won’t come as a surprise if – or maybe when – she wins her first, and this week could be ripe for it.

It took me a little longer than I would’ve liked to reach this conclusion, but Sei Young Kim (+2800) might be my favorite play on the board for her price. Essentially, she ticks every box: She’s a major champion, having won the KPMG six years ago; she’s played well at the Evian, with four career top-10s and six top-20s; she’s in form, with top-10s in eight of her last 14 starts, including each of the two most recent major championships; and she’s among the game’s better ball-strikers, ranking ninth in SG: Approach this season.

What, did you really think I’d stop betting Ina Yoon (+2800) now? She was T-4 at the year’s first major, runner-up at the most recent one and in between was in second place at the U.S. Women’s Open after the first round, only to miss the cut one day later. Point is, she’s playing some very high-level golf in the biggest events this year and while it remains to be seen whether she can win one of these, she’s been stepping up her game when it matters the most.

Before the recent KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, I noted Brooke Henderson’s price in the outright market and wrote that while she wasn’t playing her best golf, the value couldn’t be ignored. She wound up finishing T-3 that week. Well, I feel the same way about Minjee Lee (+5000) for this one. Last year, the 2021 champion finished T-3 here at one-third of this price. Even if you don’t love the horses-for-courses strategy, I can’t ignore it, despite her recent poor form.

Speaking of Brooke Henderson (+6600), I don’t know if she’s officially “back,” but she is another former champion who’s played very well here over the years.

Patty Tavatanakit (+6600) is often an auto-click for me at the majors and while I like her better on longer courses which give her an advantage, I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t take her here, as well.

The next generation of Kiara Romero (+10000), Asterisk Talley (+10000), Farah O’Keefe (+12500) and Aphrodite Deng (+15000) is going to be really good and while they’ve all played well in U.S.-based majors, I have a tough time banking on their games traveling this week.

With a pair of Australian winners here in the last half-decade, there could very well be a small correlation, which has me considering both Karis Davidson (+10000) and Cassie Porter (+12500), each of whom has been playing very solid golf recently.

Carlota Ciganda (+15000) plays extremely slowly, but she also tends to play well, especially in the majors. She’s missed the last two cuts here, but was T-3 back in 2022.

She’s probably more of a top-20/40 play, since her floor exceeds her ceiling, but Pajaree Anannarukarn (+15000) owns a nice little form/history combo.

Perhaps Dewi Weber (+20000) is simply a late bloomer. Fresh off a career-best T-3 at Hazeltine, the 30-year-old has designs on making the European Solheim Cup team and won’t be far from her Belgium upbringing this week.

OK, a few deep cuts from way down the board: Melanie Green (+25000) is a rookie who’s looked impressive at times, Jodi Ewart Shadoff (+30000) is a veteran who’s posted some nice results this season, and Mimi Rhodes (+30000) was supposed to be one of the best imports from the LET and could be more in her element back on European soil this week.