U.S. Women’s Open Betting Preview: Which Players to Target

It’s never a bad week to have a good week, but this feels like a really good week for women’s golf to have a great week, as the game’s best players convene at one of the country’s most revered venues, Riviera Country Club, for a U.S. Women’s Open that will end this Sunday a few hours after the PGA Tour’s Memorial Tournament in primetime on the East Coast, with a potentially season-high audience awaiting the outcome.

The stars should continue shining in the shadows of Hollywood, as No. 1-ranked Nelly Korda (+400) owns two wins in her last three starts and No. 2 Jeeno Thitikul (+900) similarly added a victory two starts ago.

If you’re planning to discontinue all considerations in the outright market beyond the Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy of the LPGA, that certainly isn’t a terrible plan, though it should be noted that each has endured her share of issues at the year’s toughest test.

Korda has more missed cuts at the USWO this decade than top-10 finishes, though last year’s T-2 result behind only Maja Stark suggests she’s perhaps due for the breakthrough so many have predicted, especially since she already won the Chevron Championship, this year’s first major, by a whopping five strokes.

The truth is, other than her lack of a win at this event and her short price, there aren’t many reasons to fade Nelly this week, as she’d finished first or second in every start this season until a T-8 in her most recent at the Kroger Queen City Championship. I love this stat: Her SG: Total number of 4.03 is more than a half-stroke better than Tiger Woods’ best season-long total on the PGA Tour. Even so, I’m going to bypass this quality with gritted teeth in hopes of chasing quantity with better numbers down the board.

That also means eschewing Thitikul, who owns three titles in her last 10 starts. Like Korda, her USWO record leaves something to be desired, with again more MCs (two) than top-10s (one). If I absolutely have to pick one of the top two, I’d rather eat the chalk with Korda at less than half the price as Jeeno, but both of these players are very capable of winning anytime, anyplace, including this week.

Another warning cry: Ruoning Yin (+1400) has finished runner-up in three of the last seven majors and two of her last three starts overall, with the third being a solo fourth in her most recent appearance. I’m not buying here, but much as with Korda and Thitikul, I’m definitely worried about the omission.

Instead, I’ll start my card with another superstar who’s also won recently, as Lottie Woad (+2000) took the title in Cincinnati in her most recent start. The Englishwoman was hailed as the Next Big Thing upon turning pro and she hasn’t failed to live up to that billing, already with three wins in the past 11 months while rising to sixth in the Rolex Rankings. That includes finishes of eighth or better in each of her last three major championship starts, as she’s very quickly looking exceedingly comfortable at the biggest events.

There are plenty of intriguing candidates in the bottom of the top-tier/top of the mid-tier. Miyu Yamashita (+2000) is a personal favorite, but she’s more of a high-floor play than ceiling – think Russell Henley as a comparison, though if he can win at Colonial this past weekend, maybe we should take that as a sign. Minjee Lee (+3300) knows how to win majors, but the three-time champion just hasn’t quite had her best form recently.

Angel Yin (+3500) nearly made my outright card, but she’s another with more floor than ceiling. Yin owns just a pair of LPGA victories, but has top-10s in four of her last four major starts. If you want to bank on her for another top-10 in that market, I’ll fully endorse, but 35/1 is just too a bit short for me to play as an outright.

Instead, I’d much rather Ina Yoon (+3500) at the same number, as she’s been terrific so far this season. Suspended four years ago by the KLPGA for playing the wrong ball and failing to report it during the tournament, she was persona-non-grata for a long time and still might have some folks cheering against her this week, should she get into contention. That said, it’s a good bet that she will, considering she owns four top-10s and seven top-20s this season, including in each of her last four starts. That suspension kept her from having much major championship experience over the last handful of years, but a T-14 at last year’s USWO and a T-4 at the Chevron two months ago should have us very optimistic about what this week could bring.

Just as with the men’s majors, I’m usually drawn to those players who play their best at the biggest events, which has me very interested in Rio Takeda (+4000) this week. In 10 career major starts, she has a Xander Schauffele-like five finishes of 12th or better and while she hasn’t necessarily had her best stuff this year, she does own a pair of top-five results.

After winning the Augusta National Women’s Amateur in 2019, it appeared as if Jennifer Kupcho (+6600) was going to take the fast track to superstardom. She does have a major victory, the 2022 Chevron, but exactly zero top-10s in 20 major starts since then. That doesn’t have me too optimistic, but four finishes of 13th or better in her last five starts suggests she’s playing better golf right now and is at least worth a top-10/20 consideration, if not an outright.

I could write almost the same last sentence for Minami Katsu (+6600), who similarly owns four results of 14th or better in her last five starts, but just two top-10s in 20 career majors. Again, high floor, but I’m worried about the ceiling.

Am I really going to write all about how I like players who have showed out at the majors, then inexplicably back Rose Zhang (+6600), who hasn’t sniffed a top-20 in her last 15 of ‘em? Why yes, I certainly am. Sorry, but I’m a sucker for pure talent – and we all know Zhang has a ton of it, even if she hasn’t shown it at the big events lately. With two top-10s this season and a T-12 in her last start, I’m cautiously optimistic she’s on the right path, but this is just a play on big talent at a fairly big number.

Riddle me this: Andrea Lee (+10000) is ranked 27th in the world, while Alison Lee (+10000) is 145th, but it’s actually the latter who’s had the better season, yet the former owns the better recent record in majors. Each of them owns a bit of value at a triple-digit number.

I spoke with major champion and current NBC/Golf Channel commentator Karen Stupples on my SiriusXM postgame show recently and asked her to name a player we don’t know much about, but should keep an eye on. She said Melanie Green (+12500) plays with a grit and determination that we love to see. At age 24, she only has two previous major starts, but is worth watching this week.

Stupples similarly told me she loves the game of Mimi Rhodes (+15000) and for those degenerates like me who were better the LET last year, you know exactly what she’s talking about. Rhodes was terrific on the European circuit and while it hasn’t translated into success here in the U.S., I’d rather be too early on this one than too late.

Simply put, I don’t understand the number next to the name of Lauren Coughlin (+15000). She hasn’t played her best golf this year, but does own a victory just two months ago at Shadow Creek, which is as close to Riv as these players have played all year. It’s been a couple of years since Coughlin posted a pair of top-five results at majors, but she has exactly the kind of ceiling we’re looking for at a player with this price. I’d assumed she’d be half this number, if not a third of it.

Shoutout to my absolute favorite name in professional golf, Fuka Suga (+20000), which is definitely not pronounced the way you just read it. Playing her first career major this week, the 21-year-old with the rapper name is ranked 50th in the world and has enjoyed a very solid season on the JLPGA.

Kiara Romero (+20000) might be the best incoming player from the collegiate ranks. It would be a surprise to see her win a major so quickly, but she has played three of ‘em already, making the cut in two.

Only eight players have multiple top-10 finishes at the USWO in the past half-decade and two of them have massive prices next to their names this week. Hinako Shibuno (+25000) and two-time winner Yuka Saso (+30000) have done virtually nothing of note this year, but I feel like it’s my duty to at least point ‘em out way down this board.

Last but not least, Danielle Kang (+75000) is a former major champion whose game has fallen on hard times, but she’s shown a glimmer of form recently. Nobody has played more golf in the Los Angeles area than her, so perhaps the hometown bump will help this week. Oh, and did I mention she’s 750/1? I mean, some of us will bet anything at that number.