- The Mariners are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Watch the game on NESN
The Seattle Mariners (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 21-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 22-20 ATS.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 -105 | O 10 -115 | -165 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 10 -105 | +140 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+14.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+7.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+5.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+2.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 21-20 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 3.49% ROI).
- 21-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -9.75% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 1.02% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 22-20 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -1.48% ROI).
- 22-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 7.68% ROI
- 27-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.8 Units / 28.01% ROI
- 13-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.25 Units / -36.78% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strike rate of 70% (240/343) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (71/212) against Luis Castillo this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 92nd Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .228 (101 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 95th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .228 (101 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (1,129/2,618) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (105 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Hitters have chased just 225 of Nick Pivetta’s 967 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (411/933) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are just 0-6 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mariners are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Mariners are just 15-5 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Mariners are 19-47 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Red Sox are just 7-81 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Red Sox are just 4-12 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Red Sox are just 19-2 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .208 (178 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Mariners are batting just .175 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters have 110 strikeouts in 402 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .448 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .338 (2,065 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .429 (156 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .362 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 109 of 1,523 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 22 of 455 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Mariners have allowed 0.90 runs per game (37/41) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 371 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 125 of 1,620 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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