- The Braves (81-51) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (55-75)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-6), 2.13 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (6-5), 4.10 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 67-62 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 7 -120 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | U 7 +100 | -175 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 60 of his last 82 games (+20.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+17.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games at home (+16.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 69 of his last 120 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 44 of his last 63 games at home (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 106 games (+25.42 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games at home (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 59-69 against the Run Line (-20.35 Units / -12.02% ROI).
- 55-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.75 Units / -14.26% ROI
- 55-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.55 Units / -13.06% ROI
- 67-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 5.02% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-62 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -2% ROI).
- 79-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 3.59% ROI
- 64-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 57-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -9.38% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (804/1,124) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (122/213) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (36/213) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (84/479) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (336/589) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (21/57) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 24 of 297 right-handed batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (59/176) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Marlins are just 7-32 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Marlins are just 6-44 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 72-15 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 31-4 (.886) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Braves are 46-10 (.821) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,786 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 775 strikeouts in 2,786 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .265 (1,090 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .626 (2,786 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .554.
Braves hitters are slugging .456 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Braves are batting .269 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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