Marlins vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 02, 2022, 10:59 AM
  • The Braves (81-51) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (55-75)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-6), 2.13 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (6-5), 4.10 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 67-62 ATS.

Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -150O 7 -120+145
Braves -1.5 +125U 7 +100-175

Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 60 of his last 82 games (+20.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+17.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games at home (+16.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 69 of his last 120 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 44 of his last 63 games at home (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 106 games (+25.42 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games at home (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 59-69 against the Run Line (-20.35 Units / -12.02% ROI).

  • 55-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.75 Units / -14.26% ROI
  • 55-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.55 Units / -13.06% ROI
  • 67-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 5.02% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-62 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -2% ROI).

  • 79-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 3.59% ROI
  • 64-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 57-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -9.38% ROI

Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (804/1,124) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (122/213) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (36/213) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (84/479) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (336/589) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (21/57) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 24 of 297 right-handed batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (59/176) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Marlins are just 7-32 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Marlins are just 6-44 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 72-15 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 31-4 (.886) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Braves are 46-10 (.821) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,786 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 775 strikeouts in 2,786 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .265 (1,090 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .626 (2,786 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Braves hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .554.

Braves hitters are slugging .456 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Braves are batting .269 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.