- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 16-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 17-14 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | O 9 +100 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -120 | -165 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.95 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+18.60 Units / 88% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+11.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 6.5 +140 | 6.5 -190 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-20 against the Run Line (-13.95 Units / -31.38% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 4.11% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -12.98% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 4.38% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 17-14 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 8.97% ROI).
- 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -16.98% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 7.61% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 25 of 126 batters (20%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (41/239) against Edward Cabrera since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 16 of 50 batters (32%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 58 of 417 batters (14%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 10-49 (.169) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Marlins are 21-3 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Marlins are 12-12 (.500) when underdogs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Cubs are just 38-21 (.644) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 66-45 (.595) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Cubs are just 80-5 (.941) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,561 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .627 (1,561 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .213 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Cubs are batting just .227 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .289 (666 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Yan Gomes (Cubs): Concussion, D7
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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