- The Marlins are -115 favorites vs the Cubs
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 16-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 19-14 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 12 away games (+7.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+21.20 Units / 91% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+17.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+16.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-22 against the Run Line (-16.55 Units / -35.18% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.47% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -18.34% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 9.47% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 19-14 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 14.1% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -22.22% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 12.69% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (42/149) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,183/1,644) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .526 (38 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .308 — second Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 28 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (18/50) against Hayden Wesneski this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (26/76) against Hayden Wesneski on pitches in the strike zone this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (54/142) against Hayden Wesneski on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has not allowed a walk in his last 51 PAs against a RHH dating back to April 11st — Yimi Garcia has the longest active streak at 85.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 10-49 (.169) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are 7-1 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Marlins are 21-3 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 38-21 (.644) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Cubs are 10-2 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Cubs are just 8-73 (.099) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .627 (1,603 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 35 double plays in 211 opportunities (17%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,603 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .211 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .626 (713 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Cubs are batting just .246 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are slugging .338 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.60 (127.0 IP) on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.32 (148.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cubs pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (760 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have walked 8 of 223 batters (4%) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (290.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Yan Gomes (Cubs): Concussion, D7
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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