- The Marlins are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 17-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 19-15 ATS.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +150 | O 9 +100 | -105 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -120 | -115 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-23 against the Run Line (-17.55 Units / -36.52% ROI).
- 17-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -15.19% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 6.49% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-15 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 7.56% ROI).
- 19-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 16.19% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -15.15% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are just 13-39 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Marlins are just 86-112 (.434) since last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are 8-1 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are 16-2 (.889) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 118-24 (.831) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 33-27 (.550) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Diamondbacks are just 105-34 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-29 (.310) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (1,605 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 37 double plays in 225 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,605 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .209 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 163 strikeouts in 865 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .454 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Diamondbacks are batting .272 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Marlins pitchers have struck out 31% of left-handed batters they faced over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 21 of 412 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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