- The Giants are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Giants starting pitcher: Robert Wood
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-135) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Giants are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Marlins vs Giants Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 24-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 21-24 ATS.
Marlins vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Giants | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -105 | -135 |
Marlins vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.75 Units / 85% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Villar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+9.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+8.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+7.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Giants vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Johnson | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Giants vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Johnson | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Giants vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Johnson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 18-28 against the Run Line (-16.2 Units / -25.92% ROI).
- 24-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 4.12% ROI
- 19-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -16.44% ROI
- 25-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 8.08% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 21-24 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -8.81% ROI).
- 21-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -14.51% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -10.71% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 2.95% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (35/113) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (20/54) against Jesus Luzardo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (4/26) against Jesus Luzardo — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 45% (29 SO in 64 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 87th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (183/491) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (591/1,709) in non-two strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 24 of Alex Wood’s 197 fastballs in off the plate (12%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (306/889) when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Marlins are just 1-19 (.050) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Marlins are just 66-17 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Marlins are just 10-50 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Marlins are just 10-72 (.122) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Giants are just 13-7 (.650) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Giants are just 8-6 (.571) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Giants are 19-19 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Giants are just 1-16 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (1,646 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Marlins are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins hitters have 904 strikeouts in 3,342 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 43 double plays in 279 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters are slugging just .160 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Giants are batting .377 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Giants are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Giants are batting just .124 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Slater (Giants): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Heliot Ramos (Giants): Oblique, D60
- Joc Pederson (Giants): Hand, D10
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Logan Webb (Giants): Back, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
- Joseph Bart (Giants): Groin, D10
- Thomas Stripling (Giants): Back, D15
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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