- The Marlins are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara, 1.92 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams, 3.52 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-145) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Marlins are 3-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 10-6 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +100 | O 10.5 -105 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 10.5 -115 | +120 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- Ehire Adrianza has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-11 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -58.07% ROI).
- 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -50.89% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -30.49% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 22.44% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 11.72% ROI).
- 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 24.38% ROI
- 5-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -40.46% ROI
- 11-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 30.88% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had second base stolen on him 24 times last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (333/620) against Sandy Alcantara last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (668/757) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% (645/1,222) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (1,087/1,222) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .487 (110 Total Bases / 226 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 30-88 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have 978 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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