Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 18, 2023, 11:18 AM
  • The Marlins are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara, 1.92 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams, 3.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Miami Marlins (-145) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.

The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Marlins are 3-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 10-6 ATS.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +100O 10.5 -105-145
Nationals +1.5 -120U 10.5 -115+120

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Marlins vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Nick Fortes has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Ehire Adrianza has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-11 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -58.07% ROI).

  • 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -50.89% ROI
  • 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -30.49% ROI
  • 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 22.44% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 11.72% ROI).

  • 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 24.38% ROI
  • 5-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -40.46% ROI
  • 11-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 30.88% ROI

Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara had second base stolen on him 24 times last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (333/620) against Sandy Alcantara last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (668/757) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% (645/1,222) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (1,087/1,222) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .487 (110 Total Bases / 226 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 30-88 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.

The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Marlins hitters have 978 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.