- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers, 0.00 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Marlins are 1-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 6-2 ATS.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 10.5 -115 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 10.5 -105 | -145 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Willians Astudillo has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-6 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -68.54% ROI).
- 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -59.39% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 10.53% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -19.11% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 46.5% ROI).
- 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 54.77% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 6.11% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -15.12% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers threw his changeup 30% of the time (143/477) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers threw his changeup 30% of the time (401/1,339) in non-two strike counts last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted .426 (20-for-47) against Trevor Rogers on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — sixth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers allowed an OBP of .366 (366 PA’s) against right-handed batters last season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .306 — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Corey Kluber had a first-pitch strike rate of 68% (471/690) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 97th Percentile.
Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 38% (75/200) against Corey Kluber in two-strike counts last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Marlins vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
