Matthew Stafford: Best Super Bowl Prop Bets for the Rams QB

Matthew Stafford has completely reinvigorated his career in Los Angeles. As recently as just a few weeks ago, the longtime Detroit signal-caller faced hot-take accusations of not being good enough to win the big game; ironically, the Los Angeles Rams quarterback is now in position to win the biggest game of all, as the Rams are currently -4.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.

Naturally, as the quarterback of the team favored to win, Stafford has the best Super Bowl MVP odds of any player at +115. Stafford to win Super Bowl MVP is an interesting bet, considering the narrative tendrils that could affect the voting, but I think there are better opportunities in the Super Bowl marketplace. Here are some of my favorite Super Bowl prop bets for NFL fans looking to take advantage of some potential online sports betting during the big game.

Best Matthew Stafford Super Bowl Prop Bets

Matthew Stafford Under 35.5 Passing Attempts -105

Stafford is a gunslinger who just threw the ball 45 times in the NFC Championship, so now is the perfect time to come in on a sneaky passing attempts prop.

The betting public perceives the Rams as a star-studded cast of playmakers that runs through Matt Stafford. The idea that the game lives and dies on his arm is very prevalent in sports media right now. And sometimes that’s true! He did throw a combined 83 pass attempts in his last two games against the 49ers and Bucs; both of those games would have gone over this number.

But Stafford’s recent game scripts are the perfect reason to expect some downward regression in Super Bowl LVI. 

Against the 49ers, the Rams had to play catchup for most of the game – they led San Francisco for less than five minutes in the entire game. 

Against Tampa, the issue was game plan rather than game script. The Bucs are known to have one of the best rush defenses in the league, which meant head coach Sean McVay dialed up plenty of early passes to attack the Bucs’ secondary. It was only when the Rams started trying to run the ball more in the second half that Tampa was able to mount a comeback.

Against Cincinnati, I expect neither game plan nor game script to call for a heavy passing load. In terms of the matchup, Cincinnati has fielded a good ground defense for much of the year, but the absence of defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi – lost in the Wild Card win over the Raiders – has been one key factor in playoff teams’ ability to run on the Bengals. 

The Raiders averaged 7.4 yards per rush; the Titans averaged 5.2 yards per rush; the Chiefs averaged 5.8 yards per rush. With that kind of defense at the line, it’s kind of shocking that the Bengals even made the Super Bowl in the first place. (It kind of seems like teams have forgotten some of the fundamentals of running the bowl in the playoffs at vulnerable defenses, but that’s a topic for another day.)

The point is that the Rams’ offense – Sean McVay’s run game, of all things – is probably going to feast in this matchup. And creative run calls for Cam Akers and Sony Michel mean the ball will likely be Stafford’s hands far less than the previous two games.

Mix in Cincinnati’s propensity for slow starts and McVay’s knack for building a halftime lead, and this just doesn’t profile like a game where Stafford will throw the ball 38 times. I think this game probably looks a lot more like the Wild Card game against the Cardinals, where Stafford was 13-for-17 with 202 yards and two touchdowns. 

The perks of running McVay’s offense through the ground game just make way too much sense in this matchup. 

Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions +110

This is always a risky number to bet because tipped balls and other crazy NFL hijinx that are out of Stafford’s control could always ruin this ticket. But the logic here is simple: a Rams game plan centered around running the ball and play-action results in relatively low turnover risk in the passing game.

Add in the fact that Stafford has thrown only one INT in the playoffs, and it’s clear that the Rams are managing risk a little differently in the postseason. (Stafford threw 17 picks in the regular season.)

I might get burned on this, but at this price, it’s definitely worth a small shot. And because these two passing props have obvious correlation, I’m considering an NFL Parlay tying them together, too. As the odds stand right now, the payoff on that parlay would be +310.