Mets vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 18, 2023, 11:17 AM
  • The Mets are +105 favorites vs the Astros
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer, 1.92 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 2.00 ERA

The New York Mets (+105) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-175).

The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Mets are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-6 ATS.

Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -175O 8 -110+105
Astros +1.5 +145U 8 -110-125

Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 57.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
  • David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.90 Units / 195% ROI)
  • J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -25.72% ROI).

  • 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -49.08% ROI
  • 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 24.59% ROI
  • 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -31.41% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 15.41% ROI).

  • 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 18.84% ROI
  • 6-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -24.1% ROI
  • 9-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 14.63% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (484/1,346) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .195 (121-for-620) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has walked 17 of 648 right-handed batters (3%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez located 48% of his pitches inside (394/825) with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.