- The Mets are +105 favorites vs the Astros
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer, 1.92 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 2.00 ERA
The New York Mets (+105) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-175).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-6 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -175 | O 8 -110 | +105 |
| Astros | +1.5 +145 | U 8 -110 | -125 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.90 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -25.72% ROI).
- 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -49.08% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 24.59% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -31.41% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 15.41% ROI).
- 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 18.84% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -24.1% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 14.63% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (484/1,346) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .195 (121-for-620) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 17 of 648 right-handed batters (3%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 48% of his pitches inside (394/825) with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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