- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo, 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-120) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 1-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-5 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +100 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Plummer has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Nick Plummer has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 1-4 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -57.58% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -71.53% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 55.05% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -61.61% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-5 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -61.9% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -53.79% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -3.05% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -5.22% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo’s pitches (285/534) with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 59% (316/534) in two strike counts last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had a strikeout rate of 27% (22/82) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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