- The Mets are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 1.58 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, 5.62 ERA
The New York Mets (-165) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+140) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 11-7 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | O 9 -120 | -165 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 9 +100 | +140 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- Ehire Adrianza has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 6-10 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -22.31% ROI).
- 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -45.37% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 21.33% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -28.69% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 9.47% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 21.55% ROI
- 5-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -47.22% ROI
- 13-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 37.69% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .703 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander last season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .694 (91 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .363 (110-for-303) against Patrick Corbin on the road last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 64% of the time (916/1,427) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .943 (243 PA’s) on non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order batted .335 (145-for-433) against Patrick Corbin last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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