Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 20

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 21, 2023, 11:07 AM
  • The Mets are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 1.58 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, 5.62 ERA

The New York Mets (-165) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+140) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Mets are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 11-7 ATS.

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -105O 9 -120-165
Nationals +1.5 -120U 9 +100+140

Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Ehire Adrianza has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 6-10 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -22.31% ROI).

  • 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -45.37% ROI
  • 10-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 21.33% ROI
  • 6-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -28.69% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 9.47% ROI).

  • 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 21.55% ROI
  • 5-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -47.22% ROI
  • 13-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 37.69% ROI

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .703 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander last season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .694 (91 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents batted .363 (110-for-303) against Patrick Corbin on the road last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 64% of the time (916/1,427) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .943 (243 PA’s) on non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 0 Percentile.

Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order batted .335 (145-for-433) against Patrick Corbin last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported

Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM first bet offer for $1000
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.