- The Phillies (66-54) are -130 favorites vs the Mets (78-44)
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Butto (-), – ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (8-5), 4.30 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The New York Mets (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 78-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-58 ATS.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 40 games (+21.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+15.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+14.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 38 of his last 61 away games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 44 games at home (+18.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bradley Zimmer has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 122 games (+16.42 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 88 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 65 of their last 115 games (+12.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+1.90 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 67-53 against the Run Line (+16.6 Units / 11.36% ROI).
- 78-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.35 Units / 12.26% ROI
- 62-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 4.17% ROI
- 51-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -12.71% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.35% ROI).
- 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.68% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.72% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -6.49% ROI
Jose Butto: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% when ahead in the count (tied for seventh lowest)– 13th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (304/617) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (207/617) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Kyle Gibson allowed a batting average of just .190 versus the heart of the order (fifth best)– 93rd Percentile and .266 versus other batters this season (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 15th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 38-25 (.603) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mets are 37-5 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Mets are just 3-31 (.088) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Mets are 36-8 (.818) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 21-3 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,196 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (4,646 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,465 PA’s) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .331 against LHP this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .931 (172 PA’s) against LHP this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,313 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies hitters are slugging .516 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 807 of 10,284 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,863 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D15
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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