- The – are favorites vs the –
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Reds starting pitcher: Derek Law
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets () visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds () on Thursday, May 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 18-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 21-15 ATS.
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | O | ||
| Reds | U |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 63.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 61% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 58% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 15-22 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -17.03% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -19.01% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -15.37% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 5.82% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 21-15 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 13.63% ROI).
- 15-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -13.01% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 1.4% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -10.01% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 13 of 54 batters (24%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 13 of 53 batters (24%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 37% (102/273) against Kodai Senga this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 11 of 74 right-handed batters (15%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Derek Law has a strike rate of just 49% (49/100) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (12/61) against Derek Law with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 46% of Derek Law’s pitches (46/100) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Derek Law has a strike rate of just 49% (60/123) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 106-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are 119-80 (.598) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 58-45 (.563) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 20-23 (.465) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Reds are just 20-30 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Reds are just 63-6 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are just 57-102 (.358) when underdogs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (5,173 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 281 strikeouts in 1,389 PA’s (20%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have scored first in just 12% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .208 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 34% on the road since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .142 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have walked 140 of 1,374 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .334 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .314 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .376 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Reds pitchers have walked 743 of 7,629 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
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