- The Mets are + favorites vs the Tigers
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Watch the game on BSDET
The New York Mets (+) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Mets vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 16-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 14-13 ATS.
Mets vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | + + | O + | + |
| Tigers | + + | U + | + |
Mets vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Tigers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Tigers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Eric Haase | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Tigers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 27 games (+2.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 29 games (+1.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 15-14 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 3.85% ROI).
- 16-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.99% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -17.53% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 8.79% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 14-13 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 10-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -10.87% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 3.38% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .232 (233 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .412 (7-for-17) against Max Scherzer’s elevated fastball this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .245 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (130/408) against Max Scherzer since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (14/51) against Max Scherzer this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Wentz has a strike rate of just 56% (70/125) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (4/25) against Joey Wentz’s fastball this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 40% — third Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 32 of 225 left-handed batters (14%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 16 of 109 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 9% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Mets are 104-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Mets are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Tigers are 4-2 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Tigers are 16-2 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Tigers are just 40-53 (.430) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Tigers are just 20-47 (.299) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .346.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,994 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 984 strikeouts in 4,994 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have just 469 strikeouts in 2,326 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .278 (5,160 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .331 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .608 (5,160 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jose Cabrera (Tigers): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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