Teams Suck at Covering the Spread After Playing the Minnesota Vikings

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(Photo by All-Pro Reels)
Andrew Doughty Nov 22, 2021, 10:51 PM

The Washington Football Team lost to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 of the 2019 season but covered +16.5 in the 10-point loss, their second straight win against the spread after failing to cover in their previous five games. One week later, in failing to cover +10.5 in a 15-point loss to the Buffalo Bills, they became the fifth straight team that didn’t cover after playing the Vikings in their previous game.

Two years later, the post-Vikings fade is still humming.

Washington’s ATS loss to the Bills on Nov. 3, 2019, was one of 11 for teams that played the Vikings in their most recent game that season. And it’s one of 37 ATS losses in post-Vikings’ games since 2018. Those teams are just 18-37 and, entering Week 12 of the 2021 season, are riding a six-game ATS losing streak.

The most recent fade opportunity came when the Los Angeles Chargers, one week after losing to the Vikings at home, failed to cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. The Chargers didn’t cover in the same spot two years ago when a home blowout loss to the Vikings was followed with a failed cover against the Oakland Raiders.

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks are the only teams to cover this season after playing the Vikings. Every other team is 0-8, which has pushed the post-Vikings’ cover rate to 32.7 percent since 2018. No other team is close, and only the opponents of the New England Patriots (39.3 percent) have a rate below 43 percent.

Next up: The Green Bay Packers are 1-point home favorites (as of Monday, Nov. 22) against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 NFL betting odds.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.