Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 21, 2023, 12:13 PM
  • Missouri (19-8) is a -3.5 point favorite vs Mississippi State (18-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 138.5 points
  • Watch the game on SEC Network

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-9) visit Mizzou Arena to take on the Missouri Tigers (19-8) on Feb. 21. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Columbia.

Missouri is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Mississippi State vs. Missouri Over/Under is 138.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi State+3.5 -110O 138.5 -110+145
Missouri -3.5 -110U 138.5 -110-175

Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 59.1% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Missouri, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 39 games (+20.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 games (+23.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Mississippi State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Mississippi State has gone 14-13 against the spread this college basketball season (-0.3 Units / -1.01% ROI).

  • 12-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.68% ROI
  • 9-18 when betting the Over for -10.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • 18-9 when betting the Under for +8.1 Units / 27.27% ROI

Missouri Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Missouri has gone 14-13 against the spread this college basketball season (-0.25 Units / -0.84% ROI).

  • 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.4 Units / 17.3% ROI
  • 15-12 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • 12-15 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State is shooting 62% from the free throw line (260/417) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 72%

Mississippi State is shooting 26% from three (90/353) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 31%

Mississippi State is shooting 28% from three (128/455) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 34%

Mississippi State is shooting 62% from the free throw line (260/417) this season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 71%

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends:

Missouri has made 655 field goals this season — most among SEC Teams

Missouri has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (199 assists/ 127 TOs) in the first half this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.0

Missouri has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (381 assists/ 254 TOs) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Missouri has an eFG% of 56% this season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 51%

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State has averaged 8.5 steals per game (474 steals/56 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 14th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.6

Mississippi State has 205 steals this season — 4th most among Power Conference teams

Mississippi State has 205 steals this season — 2nd most among SEC Teams

Mississippi State has 474 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th most among Power Conference teams

Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends:

Missouri has averaged 11.0 steals per game (242 steals/22 games) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 6.8

Missouri has averaged 22.0 defensive rebounds per game (483 rebounds/22 games) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Missouri has averaged 11.0 steals per game (242 steals/22 games) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.5

Missouri has allowed an average of 1.27 points per shot (3,983 points/3,134 shots) since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.18


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.