Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 04, 2023, 12:02 PM
  • Mississippi State (20-10) is a -3.5 point favorite vs Vanderbilt (17-13)
  • Total (Over/Under): 133.5 points
  • Watch the game on SEC Network

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-10) visit Memorial Gymnasium to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (17-13) on Mar. 4. Tip off is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Nashville.

Mississippi State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 133.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi State-3.5 -110O 133.5 -115-165
Vanderbilt +3.5 -110U 133.5 -105+140

Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 56.3% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 42 games (+20.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+15.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+2.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Mississippi State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Mississippi State has gone 16-14 against the spread this college basketball season (+0.6 Units / 1.82% ROI).

  • 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1.67% ROI
  • 11-19 when betting the Over for -9.9 Units / -30% ROI
  • 19-11 when betting the Under for +6.9 Units / 20.91% ROI

Vanderbilt Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Vanderbilt has gone 16-14 against the spread this college basketball season (+0.6 Units / 1.82% ROI).

  • 17-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.4 Units / -15.25% ROI
  • 16-14 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 1.82% ROI
  • 14-16 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -10.91% ROI

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State is shooting 62% from the free throw line (260/417) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 72%

Mississippi State is shooting 28% from three (128/455) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 34%

Mississippi State is shooting 29% from three (285/986) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 34%

Mississippi State is shooting 24% from three (53/223) in the first half this season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 32%

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends:

Vanderbilt has averaged 11.5 assists per game (402 assists/35 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 14.6

Vanderbilt is shooting 42% (1,395/3,312) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 44%

Vanderbilt has an eFG% of 48% this season — 27th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 51%

Vanderbilt has averaged 1.18 points per shot (1,553 points/1,311 shots) this season — tied for 31st lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.24

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State has averaged 8.5 steals per game (474 steals/56 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 14th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.6

Mississippi State has averaged 9.3 steals per game (205 steals/22 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.5

Mississippi State has averaged 8.5 steals per game (474 steals/56 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.7

Mississippi State has 474 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th most among Power Conference teams

Vanderbilt Defensive Stats & Trends:

Vanderbilt has averaged 5.2 steals per game (114 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.5

Vanderbilt has averaged 6.5 steals per game (375 steals/58 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.7

Vanderbilt has averaged 6.3 steals per game (146 steals/23 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.3

Vanderbilt has averaged 6.5 steals per game (229 steals/35 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 8.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.