Missouri vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 10:50 AM
  • Alabama (27-5) is a -9.5 point favorite vs Missouri (24-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 157.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The #25 Missouri Tigers (24-8) visit Bridgestone Arena to take on the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (27-5) on Mar. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Nashville.

Alabama is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Missouri vs. Alabama Over/Under is 157.5 total points.

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Missouri vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Missouri+9.5 -110O 157.5 -110+375
Alabama -9.5 -110U 157.5 -110-500

Missouri vs Alabama Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 69.8% confidence.

Missouri vs Alabama Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Alabama, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+29.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 20 away games (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 28 games (+18.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Missouri Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Missouri has gone 17-15 against the spread this college basketball season (+0.55 Units / 1.56% ROI).

  • 19-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.35 Units / 21.98% ROI
  • 18-14 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI
  • 14-18 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -16.48% ROI

Alabama Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Alabama has gone 18-14 against the spread this college basketball season (+2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI).

  • 23-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.4 Units / 13.76% ROI
  • 15-16 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -7.39% ROI
  • 16-15 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -1.42% ROI

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends:

Missouri has an eFG% of 56% this season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 51%

Missouri has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (199 assists/ 127 TOs) in the first half this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.0

Missouri has averaged 83.3 points per game (1,832 points/22 games) this season — tied for best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 72.7

Missouri has a TS% of 52% this season — 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 47%

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends:

Alabama has made 111 three-pointers in the second half this season — most among SEC Teams

Alabama has made 10.2 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 7.2

Alabama has attempted 317 threes in the second half this season — most among SEC Teams

Alabama has 702 defensive rebounds this season — most among SEC Teams

Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends:

Missouri has averaged 11.0 steals per game (242 steals/22 games) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 6.8

Missouri has averaged 22.0 defensive rebounds per game (483 rebounds/22 games) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Missouri has forced 18.2 turnovers per game (401 turnovers/22 games) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 13.5

Missouri has averaged 11.0 steals per game (242 steals/22 games) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.5

Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends:

Alabama has averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (702 rebounds/22 games) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Alabama has averaged 28.6 defensive rebounds per game (1,572 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Alabama has averaged 28.6 defensive rebounds per game (1,572 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

Alabama has averaged 6.2 steals per game (136 steals/22 games) this season — 3rd lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.