AL MVP Odds: Aaron Judge a Massive Favorite

The AL is loaded with talent, as evidenced by a loaded AL MVP odds board at the online sportsbook.

Here are the leaders in 2022 AL MVP odds (as of October 7):

Aaron Judge

Last week:  Although it wasn’t his most productive week, Aaron Judge’s season couldn’t have ended on a better note.

The unofficial AL MVP secured the league record for home runs, swatting his 62nd dinger of the season against the Texas Rangers in the penultimate game of the year. That was his lone extra-base hit over the past seven days, with Judge compiling a below-average .375 slugging percentage across 16 at-bats.

This week:  It’s been official for a couple of weeks, but the New York Yankees rubber-stamped their AL East crown, earning their first division title since 2019.

The focus shifts to the postseason, where they await the Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Wild Card series winner. Judge has been less effective in the postseason, compiling a career .812 on-base plus slugging percentage in 29 playoff appearances.

Shohei Ohtani

Last week:  After the season Judge had, there’s no shame in finishing second in AL MVP voting, and that’s where we’re expecting Shohei Ohtani to end.

The defending Most Valuable Player lacked consistency at the plate, pushing him further out of the conversation as the season progressed. Ohtani’s last week of the season is analogous to his performance as a whole, with the dual-threat slugging just .238 while tossing 5.0 innings of one-run ball, with six strikeouts.

This week:  Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels are left contemplating another season of what could have been.

History won’t look back kindly on this iteration of the Angels. LA featured two of the best baseball players of this generation and failed to make the postseason year after year. There were rumblings of Ohtani’s unhappiness throughout the season, and we could see the Halos take home a king’s ransom if they decide to move on from the soon-to-be former MVP.

Mike Trout

Last week:  Mike Trout had something to prove to end the season.

The three-time MVP put together one of his best weeks of the season, sending four of his seven hits for extra bases for a 1.464 on-base plus slugging percentage. Still, that didn’t yield exceptional production, with Trout scoring three times and knocking two runs across his five outings.

This week:  The Angels centerfielder concluded the season with a .999 OPS, his second-worst mark of the past six seasons.

There aren’t many people who can point to that level of success and call it a down year, but the more concerning trend is that both low marks have come over the past three seasons. A lingering back injury could mean that Trout’s metrics continue to slide, although he may have another MVP season in his back pocket before he calls it a career.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Last week: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is gearing up for another playoff run, ending his season with a string of above-average performances.

The 23-year-old put together .412 on-base and .571 slugging percentages over the last five games of the regular season to end the year with a .818 OPS. Although it’s a far drop from his career-high of 1.002 last year, Vladdy Jr. remains one of the pre-eminent hitters in the American League and should bounce back next season.

This week:  For now, the Toronto Blue Jays are focused on the postseason.

The AL East runner-up host the Seattle Mariners in a Wild Card series starting Friday night. Guerrero Jr. and the rest of the Jays’ nucleus have limited postseason experience, but they have been hitting the ball hard all season as a team. Few things rival the intensity of the Rogers Centre in the postseason, which could amplify Vladdy’s current form.

Rafael Devers

Last week:  Every year, there’s a team that fails to live up to expectations.

The Angels are the first team that comes to mind, but other than 2021’s success, the Boston Red Sox haven’t delivered over the past few seasons. Boston has fallen below .500 twice over that stretch, making the postseason once.

This year was another disappointing campaign, although it wasn’t from lack of effort on Rafael Devers’s behalf. The third baseman compiled a 1.083 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week to end the year with an above-average .879 mark.

This week:  The Red Sox ended their season on a high note, sweeping the Rays in their final home series of the campaign.

However, six games below .500 and 8.0 games back of the final Wild Card spot leaves much to be desired. Devers and the Red Sox were sent home licking their wounds, and they’ll have to find a way to compete in the ultra-competitive AL East moving forward.