Angels vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Astros (89-50) are -275 favorites vs the Angels (61-78)
  • Angels starting pitcher: Joseph Davidson (2-5), 6.41 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (11-8), 3.99 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Los Angeles Angels (+220) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-275) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Angels vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Angels are 61-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 70-66 ATS.

Angels vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Angels+1.5 +105O 8 -110+220
Astros -1.5 -130U 8 -110-275

Angels vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Angels and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Angels and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Angels Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Angels players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Rengifo has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Patrick Sandoval has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 away games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 59 games (+10.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Mike Trout has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+16.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 66 games at home (+15.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.40 Units / 44% ROI)

Astros vs Angels Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jose Altuve 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Astros vs Angels Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jeremy Pena 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Astros vs Angels RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jose Altuve 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Astros vs Angels Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Garcia 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
Tucker Davidson 2.5 -140 2.5 +100
  • The Los Angeles Angels have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Angels have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 126 games (+26.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 46 games at home (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 63 games at home (+7.95 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 43 games at home (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)

Angels Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Angels have gone 65-71 against the Run Line (-11.65 Units / -6.93% ROI).

  • 61-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.05 Units / -14.32% ROI
  • 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -7.03% ROI
  • 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -0.85% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Angels have gone 70-66 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 3.09% ROI).

  • 87-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.08% ROI
  • 47-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.7 Units / -27.33% ROI
  • 81-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +29 Units / 19.23% ROI

Opponents have a chase percentage of 45% (21/47) against Tucker Davidson this month (1 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Tucker Davidson was 114.4 MPH — 8th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.0

Tucker Davidson has struck out just 9% (2/22) of right-handed batters he faced this month (1 games) — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 11th Percentile.

Opponents had a chase percentage of 45% (21/47) against Tucker Davidson — 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 31% — 95th Percentile.

Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .387 (24-for-62) against Luis Garcia on low fastballs this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .274 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .113 (8 GB hits out of 71 GBs) against Luis Garcia with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 98th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has 32 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 12th most among of 673 pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has averaged 79.4 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — sixth Percentile.

Angels Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Angels are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Angels are just 6-33 (.154) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Angels are just 7-35 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Angels are just 52-10 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Angels

The Astros are 37-4 (.902) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Astros are 53-3 (.946) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Astros are 46-21 (.687) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Astros are 4-36 (.100) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Angels are batting just .224 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Angels hitters have an OBP of just .290 (1,522 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

The Angels are batting just .235 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Angels hitters have an OPS of just .657 (1,522 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Astros hitters have just 2,254 strikeouts in 11,488 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 665 strikeouts in 3,659 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 795 strikeouts in 4,319 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Angels pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Angels pitchers have walked 108 of 1,239 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Angels pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Angels have won just 28% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.5

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Angels Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Justin Verlander (Astros): Calf, D15
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
  • David Fletcher (Angels): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Jhonathan Diaz (Angels): Undisclosed, D60
  • Anthony Rendon (Angels): Wrist, D60
  • Archie Bradley (Angels): Elbow, D60
  • Griffin Canning (Angels): Back, D60
  • Jared Walsh (Angels): Rib, D60
  • Chris Rodriguez (Angels): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.