- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Angels
- Angels starting pitcher: Shohei Ohtani
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on TBS
The Los Angeles Angels (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Angels vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Angels are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 40-45 ATS.
Angels vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Angels | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -120 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 +100 | -145 |
Angels vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Angels and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Angels players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Angels Player Prop Bets Today:
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+15.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres vs Angels Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Padres vs Angels Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Angels RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Angels Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Joe Musgrove | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
Angels Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 27 away games (+6.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 away games (+3.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 75 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games at home (+2.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Angels Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Angels have gone 41-46 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -7.66% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -5.2% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -7.97% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.27% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 40-45 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -8.77% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -25 Units / -19.96% ROI
- 33-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.05 Units / -22.08% ROI
- 48-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.3 Units / 13.38% ROI
Angels Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shohei Ohtani is slugging .664 (217 total bases in 327 ABs) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .437 — 100th Percentile.
Shohei Ohtani is slugging .664 (217 total bases in 327 ABs) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .429 — 100th Percentile.
Shohei Ohtani has an OPS of 1.054 (382 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .758 — 100th Percentile.
Shohei Ohtani has an OPS of 1.110 (200 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .760 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (108/216) against Joe Musgrove with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 99th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 80.9 MPH on inside pitches since last season (241 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (54 Total Bases / 90 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .386 — second Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Jack Flaherty has the longest active streak at 49.2.
Angels Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Angels are just 18-15 (.545) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Angels are just 44-29 (.603) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Angels were just 3-13 (.188) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Angels are just 13-62 (.173) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Angels
The Padres are just 35-7 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Padres are just 1-3 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 7-41 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 37-43 (.462) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Angels Hitting Stats & Trends
Angels hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,757 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Angels are batting .273 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Angels hitters have 1,687 strikeouts in 6,642 PA’s (25%) against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Angels hitters have 2,307 strikeouts in 9,310 PA’s (25%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 257 walks in 2,256 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 111 walks in 1,145 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Angels Pitching Stats & Trends
Angels pitchers have walked 77 of 771 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Angels pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Angels pitchers have walked 199 of 2,211 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Angels pitchers have walked 1,443 of 15,557 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,062 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Angels Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
- Brandon Drury (Angels): Shoulder, D10
- José Suarez (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Max Stassi (Angels): Hip , D60
- José Quijada (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Logan O’Hoppe (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Giovanny Urshela (Angels): Pelvis, D60
- Matthew Moore (Angels): Oblique, D15
- Austin Warren (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Michael Trout (Angels): Hand, D10
- José Marte (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Chris Rodriguez (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Robert Daniel (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Neto (Angels): Oblique, D10
- Benjamin Joyce (Angels): Arm, D15
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