- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Angels
- Angels starting pitcher: Patrick Sandoval
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Los Angeles Angels (+150) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Angels vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Angels are 45-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 41-45 ATS.
Angels vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Angels | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | -185 |
Angels vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Angels and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Angels players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Angels Player Prop Bets Today:
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+15.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+14.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Anthony Rendon has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres vs Angels Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Angels Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Angels RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Padres vs Angels Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Angels Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 28 away games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 29 away games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 away games (+2.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Angels Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Angels have gone 41-47 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -9.02% ROI).
- 45-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -6% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -6.87% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -1.52% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 41-45 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -7.27% ROI).
- 40-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -24 Units / -18.93% ROI
- 34-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.05 Units / -20.81% ROI
- 48-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.1 Units / 11.92% ROI
Angels Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 63% (132/209) against Alex Cobb in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Alex Cobb threw his changeup 47% of the time (241/508) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 60% (136/225) against Alex Cobb in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (169/270) against Alex Cobb in non-two strike counts in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (97/506) against Seth Lugo since last season — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — fifth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (215/471) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (194/914) against Seth Lugo since last season — 9th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .191 (50-for-262) against Seth Lugo with two-strikes since last season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .153 — ninth Percentile.
Angels Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Angels are just 11-19 (.367) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Angels are just 18-15 (.545) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Angels were just 3-13 (.188) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Angels are just 13-63 (.171) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Angels
The Padres are just 7-41 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are 9-11 (.450) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Padres are 35-5 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 27-38 (.415) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Angels Hitting Stats & Trends
Angels hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,795 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Angels hitters have an OBP of just .277 (725 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Angels hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,795 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Angels hitters have 2,321 strikeouts in 9,348 PA’s (25%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 262 walks in 2,292 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 676 walks in 6,640 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have drawn 111 walks in 1,151 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Angels Pitching Stats & Trends
Angels pitchers have walked 80 of 779 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Angels pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Angels pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Angels pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,088 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Padres vs. Angels Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
- Brandon Drury (Angels): Shoulder, D10
- José Suarez (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels): Finger Blister, Day-to-Day
- Max Stassi (Angels): Hip , D60
- José Quijada (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Logan O’Hoppe (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Giovanny Urshela (Angels): Pelvis, D60
- Matthew Moore (Angels): Oblique, D15
- Austin Warren (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Michael Trout (Angels): Hand, D10
- José Marte (Angels): Elbow, D60
- Chris Rodriguez (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Rendon (Angels): Shin, Day-to-Day
- Robert Daniel (Angels): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Neto (Angels): Oblique, D10
- Benjamin Joyce (Angels): Arm, D15
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