- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Angels
- Angels starting pitcher: Joseph Davidson, 4.50 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo, 3.60 ERA
- Watch the game on BSW
The Los Angeles Angels (+105) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Tuesday, March 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Angels vs Padres Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Angels are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 4-4 ATS.
Angels vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Angels | +1.5 -175 | O 11 -120 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 11 +100 | -125 |
Angels vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Angels and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Angels players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Angels Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Rengifo has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jo Adell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mike Trout has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Taylor Ward has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- Juan Lagares has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 10% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Angels Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 118 games (+21.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 101 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Angels have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.25 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games at home (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Angels Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Angels have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 12.21% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 15.04% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -36.5% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 28.43% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -2.55% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -24.06% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -14.53% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 10.4% ROI
Angels Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tucker Davidson has limited playing time.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .165 (17-for-103) against Seth Lugo last season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 91st Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .279 (41-for-147) against Seth Lugo last season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 10th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 21% (60/281) against Seth Lugo last season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Angels Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Angels are just 3-13 (.188) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Angels are just 3-68 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Angels are just 8-55 (.127) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Angels are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Angels
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Angels Hitting Stats & Trends
Angels hitters have an OPS of just .643 (3,666 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.
The Angels are just 3-13 (.188) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Angels hitters have an OBP of just .273 (909 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Angels hitters struck out 1,103 times in 4,134 PA’s (27%) against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Angels Pitching Stats & Trends
Angels pitchers have walked 1,132 of 12,234 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Angels have won just 29% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Angels pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Angels pitchers have allowed a run just 28% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Angels Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Robert Daniel (Angels): Shoulder, D60
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