- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-120) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 9-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-10 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | O 9 -115 | +100 |
| Braves | -1.5 +165 | U 9 -105 | -120 |
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 14 games (+14.10 Units / 76% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 49% ROI)
Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Braves vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Braves vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Braves vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 10-9 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -2.94% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -25% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 25.78% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -34.05% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-10 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -1.14% ROI).
- 14-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.5 Units / 24.51% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -15.37% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .125 (4-for-32) against Hunter Brown this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 92nd Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of just .215 (14 Total Bases / 65 ABs) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — 94th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (4 Total Bases / 32 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has pitched 14.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 27.1.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.0 MPH this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Bryce Elder this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 89th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has allowed a BABIP of .524 against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .309 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .120 (3-for-25) against Bryce Elder — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — 95th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 54-6 (.900) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Astros are 74-6 (.925) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Astros are 52-10 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves are 9-0 (1.000) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
The Braves are 45-5 (.900) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 2,037 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 4,118 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 187 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .305 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .310 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .790 (1,867 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Braves are batting .305 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (287/87) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
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