- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Braves
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Houston Astros (-110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-110) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 10-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-11 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 15 games (+15.10 Units / 73% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Braves vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 39% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 11-9 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -21.04% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.4 Units / 28.89% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -37.07% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-11 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -5.47% ROI).
- 14-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 19.81% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 10.53% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -19.19% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (417/622) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (45/67) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (116/622) against Framber Valdez since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (133/197) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (161/255) against Kyle Wright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (87/170) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (293/526) against Kyle Wright since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 73% (11/15) against Kyle Wright — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 34-19 (.642) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Astros are 41-60 (.406) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Astros are 41-35 (.539) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Astros are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Braves are 45-6 (.882) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 348 strikeouts in 2,046 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 728 strikeouts in 4,127 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .453 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .305 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves hitters are slugging .311 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (853.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 (773.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves have allowed 2.17 runs per game (26/12) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
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