Astros vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 23, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The are favorites vs the
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Houston Astros () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:30pm EDT in Atlanta.

The are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().

The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.

This season, the Astros are 11-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-12 ATS.

Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros O
Braves U

Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 16 games (+16.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.15 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Vaughn Grissom has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)

Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jose Abreu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Sam Hilliard 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Braves vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -190 0.5 +140
Jose Abreu 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Sam Hilliard 0.5 -120 0.5 -110
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Mauricio Dubon 1.5 +180 1.5 -250

Braves vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Jose Abreu 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Sam Hilliard 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Braves vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 4.5 +105 4.5 -135
Cristian Javier 6.5 +100 6.5 -130
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.55 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.35 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 6.49% ROI).

  • 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -17.33% ROI
  • 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.4 Units / 31.9% ROI
  • 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -40.22% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-12 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -12.37% ROI).

  • 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 15.45% ROI
  • 12-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 14.41% ROI
  • 8-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -23.18% ROI

Cristian Javier has struck out 38% (115/301) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 61% of the time (126/206) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 56% of the time (51/91) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has allowed 7 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .167 (384 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .353 (384 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .465 — 97th Percentile.

Max Fried has located his fastball inside 67% of the time (35/52) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has walked 32 of 765 batters (4%) since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Astros are 35-19 (.648) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Astros are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.

The Astros are 41-60 (.406) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 22-17 (.564) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Braves are 45-6 (.882) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.

The Braves are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.

Astros hitters have just 348 strikeouts in 2,046 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros have scored 2.43 runs per game (51/21) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.

The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 27 strikeouts in 196 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves hitters are slugging .305 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Braves hitters are slugging .667 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters have put just 23% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,896 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (294/89) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Braves have allowed 2.17 runs per game (26/12) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
  • Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
  • Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.