- The – are favorites vs the –
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:30pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 11-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-12 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 16 games (+16.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.15 Units / 101% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)
Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 6.49% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -17.33% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.4 Units / 31.9% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -40.22% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-12 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -12.37% ROI).
- 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 15.45% ROI
- 12-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 14.41% ROI
- 8-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -23.18% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has struck out 38% (115/301) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 61% of the time (126/206) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 56% of the time (51/91) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has allowed 7 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .167 (384 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .353 (384 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .465 — 97th Percentile.
Max Fried has located his fastball inside 67% of the time (35/52) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has walked 32 of 765 batters (4%) since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 35-19 (.648) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Astros are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Astros are 41-60 (.406) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-17 (.564) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves are 45-6 (.882) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Braves are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 348 strikeouts in 2,046 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have scored 2.43 runs per game (51/21) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.
The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 27 strikeouts in 196 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .305 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .667 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Braves hitters have put just 23% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,896 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (294/89) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves have allowed 2.17 runs per game (26/12) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
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