- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Brewers
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Houston Astros (-115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-105) on Monday, May 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Astros vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 27-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 22-24 ATS.
Astros vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Astros vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+17.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+16.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+12.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Brewers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Brewers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+4.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+3.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+2.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 23-23 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -5.12% ROI).
- 27-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.42% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.99% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 22-24 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -3.44% ROI).
- 25-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 3.99% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -11.9% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 1.7% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (88/223) against Cristian Javier this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (16/61) against Cristian Javier this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 54% of the time (112/206) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 58% of the time (247/428) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 64% of the time (646/1,013) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 60% of the time (43/72) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (194/308) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 68% of the time (209/308) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Astros are 86-7 (.925) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Astros are 22-12 (.647) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Astros are 61-6 (.910) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Astros are 117-2 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Brewers are 18-2 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Brewers are 34-31 (.523) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Brewers are just 11-44 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 406 strikeouts in 2,340 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 786 strikeouts in 4,421 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .487 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .355.
Astros hitters have just 85 strikeouts in 490 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 138 strikeouts in 458 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have 578 strikeouts in 2,169 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Astros have allowed 3.29 runs per game (336/102) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 4 of 104 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Louis Voit (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
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