- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (-125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on Thursday, June 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Astros vs Cardinals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 43-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 35-44 ATS.
Astros vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 10 -115 | -125 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -155 | U 10 -105 | +105 |
Astros vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+15.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.90 Units / 56% ROI)
Cardinals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Cardinals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Cardinals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
Cardinals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Adam Wainwright | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 41-39 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.1% ROI).
- 43-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -3.66% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -5.32% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 35-44 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -13.07% ROI).
- 33-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.5 Units / -25.48% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -6.61% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -1.61% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
J.P. France had a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (10/26) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
J.P. France has a strike rate of just 58% (221/380) over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 12% (12/101) against J.P. France when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
J.P. France has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (118/221) this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fifth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has an average fastball velocity of just 86.9 MPH this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 0 Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .403 (27-for-67) against Adam Wainwright this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (883/1,528) when behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (125/420) against Adam Wainwright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Astros are just 1-6 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Astros are 101-11 (.902) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Astros are 69-9 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Astros are 66-14 (.825) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Cardinals are just 23-6 (.793) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Cardinals are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are 25-7 (.781) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 23-9 (.719) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,677 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 451 strikeouts in 2,596 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 130 strikeouts in 746 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,052 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have 314 extra-base hits out of 755 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Nolan Arenado (Cardinals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
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