• The Guardians are -140 favorites vs the Astros
• Astros vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Astros / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SCHN

The Houston Astros (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-140) on April 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Astros are 9-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 13-11 ATS.

Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Weiss 0-2, 6.76 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 3-0, 1.05 ERA

Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Astros vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brice Matthews has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+19.90 Units / 284% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 45% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 away games (+3.25 Units / 5% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+18.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 50 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 9-15 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -20.67% ROI).

• 9-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -32.97% ROI
• 17-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 32.96% ROI
• 7-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -44.57% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 13-11 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 7.3% ROI).

• 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 15.11% ROI
• 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -3.81% ROI
• 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -5.06% ROI

Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Astros are just 1-9 (.100) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Astros are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Astros were 56-7 (.889) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Astros were 41-8 (.837) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Guardians are 36-4 (.878) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.

The Guardians are just 0-8 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.

The Guardians are 9-1 (.900) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.

The Guardians were 24-2 (.923) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters are slugging .479 with bases empty this season — 2nd best in MLB.

14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (858/6,089 PA’s) in the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OPS of .788 (947 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Astros hitters have put 45% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

7% of Guardians’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (62/884 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have put just 27% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have struck out in 35% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 5.93 (209.1 IP) this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 6.37 (155.1 IP) this month (18 games) — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 7.39 (91.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (498.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

Bet now on Astros vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.