- The Astros (70-38) are -160 favorites vs the Guardians (54-52)
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (8-7), 3.80 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (7-5), 4.07 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Houston Astros (-160) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+135) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 70-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-51 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -105 | -160 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -155 |
| Luis Garcia | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 106 games (+21.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 95 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 92 games (+12.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 89 games (+10.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 87 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+4.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 56-52 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 4.67% ROI).
- 70-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 4.69% ROI
- 39-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.1 Units / -26.34% ROI
- 65-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.9 Units / 18.26% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-51 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.78% ROI).
- 54-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 3.28% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.17% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -8.67% ROI
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
50 of Luis Garcia’s 112 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .190 (84 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .210 (46-for-219) against Luis Garcia this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .208 (82-for-395) against Luis Garcia this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 85th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 30% (75 SO in 246 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 12% (32/272) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
11 of Cal Quantrill’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
25 of Cal Quantrill’s 79 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 38-5 (.884) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are 62-12 (.838) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 42-3 (.933) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Astros are 27-4 (.871) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are just 16-49 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Guardians are 35-2 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Guardians are 33-5 (.868) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Guardians are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 607 strikeouts in 3,323 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 18 strikeouts in 144 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,058 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Guardians hitters have just 526 strikeouts in 2,951 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (461.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .332 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed 227 barreled balls this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 132 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (15 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 37% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Kwan (Guardians): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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