Astros vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 07, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The (74-33) are favorites vs the (74-33)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (6-7), 3.24 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (7-8), 3.37 ERA
  • Watch the game on Peacock

The Houston Astros () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Cleveland.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 70-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 56-51 ATS.

Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros O
Guardians U

Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)

Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Josh Naylor 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Myles Straw 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Josh Naylor 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Myles Straw 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Josh Naylor 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Myles Straw 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Cristian Javier 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 107 games (+22.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 96 games (+20.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+11.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 93 games (+11.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 88 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 56-53 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 3.84% ROI).

  • 70-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 3.77% ROI
  • 39-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.2 Units / -27.02% ROI
  • 66-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.9 Units / 18.92% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 56-51 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI).

  • 55-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 4.34% ROI
  • 52-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.76% ROI
  • 48-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -7.73% ROI

Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (514/1,375) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.

Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (404/806) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (122/446) against Cristian Javier since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (26/96) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (tied for ninth highest)– 86th Percentile and 67% when behind in the count this season (tied for eighth lowest among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (104/320) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .204 (88-for-431) against Triston McKenzie this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 90th Percentile.

77% of Triston McKenzie’s called strikeouts are low this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Astros are 62-13 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 34-17 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Astros are 38-5 (.884) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Astros are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Guardians are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Guardians are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Guardians are 9-43 (.173) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Guardians are just 17-49 (.258) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Astros hitters have just 607 strikeouts in 3,323 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 737 strikeouts in 3,983 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 2,031 strikeouts in 10,369 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Guardians hitters have just 531 strikeouts in 2,981 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .306 (3,018 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Opponents are hitting just .210 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.1 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 124 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Kyle Tucker (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.