- The – (74-33) are favorites vs the – (74-33)
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (6-7), 3.24 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (7-8), 3.37 ERA
- Watch the game on Peacock
The Houston Astros () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 70-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 56-51 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 107 games (+22.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 96 games (+20.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+11.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 93 games (+11.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 88 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 56-53 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 3.84% ROI).
- 70-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 3.77% ROI
- 39-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.2 Units / -27.02% ROI
- 66-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.9 Units / 18.92% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 56-51 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI).
- 55-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 4.34% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -7.73% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (514/1,375) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (404/806) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (122/446) against Cristian Javier since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (26/96) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (tied for ninth highest)– 86th Percentile and 67% when behind in the count this season (tied for eighth lowest among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (104/320) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .204 (88-for-431) against Triston McKenzie this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 90th Percentile.
77% of Triston McKenzie’s called strikeouts are low this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 62-13 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 34-17 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Astros are 38-5 (.884) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Astros are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Guardians are 9-43 (.173) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Guardians are just 17-49 (.258) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 607 strikeouts in 3,323 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 737 strikeouts in 3,983 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,031 strikeouts in 10,369 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have just 531 strikeouts in 2,981 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .306 (3,018 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .210 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.1 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 124 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Kyle Tucker (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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