- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Houston Astros (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Saturday, June 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 36-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 31-32 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -135 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 22 games at home (+19.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+11.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+11.45 Units / 87% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games (+17.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 33-31 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 36-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.48% ROI
- 31-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 32-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.85% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-32 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -2.34% ROI).
- 30-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -12.49% ROI
- 22-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.5 Units / -28.32% ROI
- 38-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.9 Units / 19.9% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (14/23) against J.P. France on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
J.P. France has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to May 12nd — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 9.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (25/38) against J.P. France over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (10/15) against J.P. France — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 94th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to September 28th, 2022 — Hunter Greene has the longest active streak at 7.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (139-for-704) against Triston McKenzie since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .248 (440 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .273 (30-for-110) against Triston McKenzie when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 97th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros were 41-52 (.441) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Astros were 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros were 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Astros were 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians were 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians were 18-37 (.327) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Guardians were 61-5 (.924) when scoring 5 or more runs in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 433 strikeouts in 2,475 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 813 strikeouts in 4,556 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 112 strikeouts in 625 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,112 strikeouts in 6,263 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,567 strikeouts in 8,524 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .671 (682 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 126 of 2,031 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 616 of 8,384 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 38 of 571 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
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