- The – are favorites vs the –
- Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 37-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 31-33 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 23 games (+11.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 22 games at home (+19.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+12.50 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bielak | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
| Shane Bieber | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 34-31 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.18% ROI).
- 37-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.3% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -4.74% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -4.35% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-33 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -3.53% ROI).
- 30-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -13.96% ROI
- 23-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -26.45% ROI
- 38-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.8 Units / 18.04% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Bielak has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (224/433) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 61% — fourth Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has induced opposing hitters to ground into 8 double plays in 33 opportunities (24%) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .379 (11-for-29) against Brandon Bielak’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has allowed an OPS of .772 (434 PA’s) since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .665 — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (262/409) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 59% of the time (733/1,237) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 59% of the time (822/1,399) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has struck out just 15% (25/167) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Astros are 44-30 (.595) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Astros are 56-28 (.667) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Astros are 61-12 (.836) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 25-76 (.248) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 9-19 (.321) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Guardians are 17-82 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Guardians are 27-28 (.491) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 434 strikeouts in 2,489 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 814 strikeouts in 4,570 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 61% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,122 strikeouts in 6,304 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .671 (682 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Guardians hitters have just 1,577 strikeouts in 8,565 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 128 of 2,040 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Andrés Giménez (Guardians): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
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