- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Astros vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SCHN | WKYC
The Houston Astros (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Friday, June 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Astros are 34-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 32-29 ATS.
Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Colton Gordon 0-1, 5.96 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 3-3, 4.23 ERA
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -115 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +105 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+27.50 Units / 393% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+11.65 Units / 146% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+10.57 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.14 Units / 17% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 33-29 against the Run Line (+5.92 Units / 7.56% ROI).
- 34-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 25-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.5 Units / -19.82% ROI
- 35-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 10.82% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 32-29 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -1.78% ROI).
- 33-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 8.78% ROI
- 27-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -9.31% ROI
- 31-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.83% ROI
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
| Colton Gordon (HOU) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colton Gordon has limited playing time.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Logan Allen’s 20 breaking pitch strikeouts (50%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (89 Total Bases / 141 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .408 — 0 Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed an OPS of .951 (359 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .701 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .276 (29-for-105) against Logan Allen with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .169 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Astros are 51-48 (.515) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 97-3 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Guardians are 103-2 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians were 54-38 (.587) after a win in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .295 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .327 in righty-righty matchups since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
More MLB Reading:
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